THE 2015 CONUNDRUM Many have wondered or even asked where my vote will go in the 2015 presidential elections. Some of the key reasons for asking being to either align with me or to understand my reason. I fully understand and have weighed carefully the options presented. I will be a fool however, if I claim ignorance of the extant political reality in Nigeria that the race is between the incumbent President Jonathan of PDP and APC’s Muhammadu Buhari. I had set the bar to vote anyone below 50 years old to set the bar, even if not to win, for the younger Nigerians to mount the saddle of leadership. Sadly though, there has nearly not been any serious under-50 candidate if any at all. I am thus forced to revisit (or consider as may apply) either GEJ or GMB. Let me preface this by accepting that both candidates will meet the 25% in 2/3 of the states. For one, Buhari has a clout of 16 states under his belt where incumbency of governors and legislators should guarantee he meets the minimum requirements. Again going by his previous outings, he stands a bright chance of making the extra 8 states even if by the skin of the teeth to have 24 states. GEJ seemingly has an easier job of hitting this benchmark with 20 states already and gunning for just 4 more. Ostensibly, the decision will fall to who wins majority votes. Now that is about the political permutations; now to reality. The major worry in PDP is not limited to irreconcilable fallout of the party’s nomination process. Many top shots who managed to, by the power of the persuasion, secured for their favoured candidates the party’s nomination left in its wake, several disgruntled stalwarts who have either sat in the party to complain or moved on taking a chunk of their political force along with them to brighter fields. One may not be wrong to assume that PDP is now a declawed and defanged lion whose power most lie in its roar more than its bite. Again the absence of a party primaries for the presidency has cast a shadow of doubt if truly GEJ represents the will of the majority in the party. All these and the accusations of a flaccid government at the centre compounds the chances PDP might have. (My reader is free to ad lib his own opinions here) APC on the other hand has had a very good media outing. They have been on the offensive and aggressively too. Even when they are not making sense or selling the stuff, they have been consistent and innovative. This this effect, they have enjoyed (and continued to enjoy) the story of change, especially among the educated/elite, especially those who are Social-media savvy. Sadly, this portion of our population is just a paltry 30%. (this post will only be read by a miniscule percentage of this 30) This sad reality is compounded by the fact that apart from running an exclusionist campaign by sidelining the Southeast and Southsouth, these region remains the main power bloc of President Jonathan and a classic mistake here is believing in consolidation as against dissipation as an election tactic. That APC for instance presented a Yemi Osinbajo as its VP candidate was greeted with positive response from the elite but meant nothing to the vulcanizer or market woman in the street. Cerebral as Yemi might be, it did little to douse the resentment or sentiment of those who do not like APC; and they are still in the majority. Our political underdevelopment has guaranteed this and will still take the initiative back to PDP. While others draw on religious, clannish and age sentiments against Buhari, the inability of the party to have fielded a more moderate candidate may come back to bite the party at some point. Buhari is generally a hard-sell among Christians and moderate Muslims. A Christian politician rather than a Christian cleric may have been a lot more helpful but then again, the lesson from 2011 (if any), has not sunk through. We still have over 70% of our voting population in the rural areas who hold tenaciously to what they believe in. They are the hardest to sway among the entire polity. In some states like Abia, mentioning APC still sounds like a taboo even among the educated/elite. Chances are slim that the APC message will be bought, voted and defended in this 70% (anyone thinking otherwise has never been to the field). We shall therefore see Buhari winning in the places he has traditionally won, save for a slight shift here and there. The decision to leave GEJ’s power bloc intact (like I said earlier) may come back to haunt APC According to Sun Tzu’s Art of War, underestimating your enemy is the first step towards losing a war. 11 states to me is too much leeway in politics to leave to chance. While Jonathan’s running mate is a northern Muslim POLITICIAN, chances he will shore up bloc votes for PDP is slim, but there exist a possibility of dissipating Buhari’s force in the core North especially if the Christian communities in the North are coalesced into a potent force. Christianity on the other hand is too proliferated for a Pentecostal Preacher to rally support. Core orthodox Christians and Conservative Pentecostals will still have a problem identifying with Yemi. The rest is easier imagined… the presidency on the other hand has not done enough within its power bloc to guarantee or at least, set in motion, the possibility of a repeat of 2011 results thus the argument that APC stands up 49% chance in this elections seem a lot more credible and feasible. Even Buhari is looking both upbeat and dazzling as against the older sullen and straight-faced crusader for change. The positive vibe from APC lately has given Nigerians a cause to wish to tap into goodwill. But then the harsh reality… Buhari’s clamour for change has not taken into consideration that it can only go as fast as democracy crawls. Rule of law must be obeyed and there will be no sacred cows or selective punishment. Buhari has neither postured as one who will obey the orders of a state high court (which amazingly has the right to overrule him in some issues). He has not postured as one who will allow the legislature determine the pace of the direst changes he wishes to make. I cannot find where he has sincerely shed the dictator’s toga in willingness to submit to democratic reform. I have not seen a blueprint beyond the accusation of ineptitude, insincerity and unresponsiveness of GEJ and PDP. There has been little cerebral postulation from him or APC on how to move Nigeria forward. I am yet to see one argument against government based on objective parameters other than the GEJ/PDP is bad mantra. Buhari has not considered that whatever he believes in must be shared by 73 Senators and 240 Representatives at the national assembly; a whopping 313 legislators who may not necessarily be from his party or have a personal axe to grind with him. There has been no diplomacy in speech or action to suggest that he may be willing to shift grounds on issues. We would be faced by several killed bills or veto/re-vetoed bills. Worse still we may be faced by a power play which will create a democratically elected dictatorship; akin to what Germany had under the NAZI party; a supreme leader who is beyond the state and its apparatus. I fear more of a Buhari in power without the requisite tact and forbearance to steer the ship of a democratic Nigeria, especially with our disparate and divergent heterogeneity. I will be voting (or seriously considering voting) President Goodluck back to power. Apart from being my party’s adopted candidate he has shown to be more willing to follow democracy’s small steps. Jonathan even in his slowness has managed to balance the ruling party and the opposition without a major disagreement to threaten the polity and much as Nigerians may not appreciate this, it takes an exceptional politician to not lose his cool especially with the enormity of power under his belt. He has supplied tame shots to allow them to be caught than to go for the jugular every time the opportunity presents. He has shown that he may not get it right all the time but that some of our fundamental rights in a democracy are protected. I am willing to stake my two cents that the government will only sit up when we offer constructive opposition to it. So far, we have offered none. The heavy losses PDP will sustain in this election will guarantee that those who succeed will appreciate that all things in life and in politics are fungible. There will be reduced impunity since majority is highly unlikely. In all I still pray that Nigeria is blessed with a younger generation of leaders who have not drunk from the stream after her pot-bellied watchers had despoiled her. My support at this time will remain with GEJ in view of the above without prejudice to any other occurrences between now and the polls that may make me change my mind.
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:49:52 +0000
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