THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 00:07:28 +0000
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