THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALONG THE MS RIVER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW NEW CONVECTION TO INITIATE WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN THE MID MS VALLEY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE MO AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD ACROSS SE MO AND SCNTRL IL INTO FAR NE AR AND WRN KY. WILL ALSO ADD A SMALL 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER IN SRN IL...SE MO AND WRN KY.
Posted on: Sun, 17 Nov 2013 05:19:31 +0000
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