THE CURRENT WEATHER GUESS CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS [CORRECTED] As of 5:00 am today, the eye of STY Haiyan was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 975 km southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 1,065 km east-southeast of Metro Cebu...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 35 km/hr towards Leyte and Southern Samar Area. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 280 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers from the center. STY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* STY Haiyan is expected to move fast in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the northeastern shores of Leyte, about 35 km south of Tacloban City between 10-11 AM Friday and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City around noontime Friday. This Super Typhoon will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas Friday afternoon, passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around 2 PM...across the northern tip of Panay (along Roxas City and Boracay) Friday evening between 6 PM to 8 PM...and will be over Coron, Palawan by early Saturday Morning (approx. 2 AM). By Saturday morning, Haiyan (Yolanda) will be over the West Philippine Sea moving away from the Philippines. STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 230 km/hr by early Saturday morning. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon...approaching the eastern coast of Leyte...about 315 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [2AM NOV 08: 10.3N 127.7E @ 270kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Calamian Group of Islands...weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves into the West Philippine Sea...about 30 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [2AM NOV 09: 12.2N 120.0E @ 230kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR...moving across the western part of the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 515 km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM NOV 10: 14.3N 112.6E @ 205kph].
Posted on: Thu, 07 Nov 2013 03:41:13 +0000
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