THE EPILOGUE ON FL CD-13... A JOLLY TIME FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA REPUBLICANS - From The American Spectator... The dimension of the narrow win roughly reflects the narrow registration advantage Republicans enjoy in the district, throwing into doubt the idea that this special election informs us about the much talked about but almost never sighted national mood. This being the first congressional election of the year, both national parties and a passel of outside groups spent an almost incomprehensible amount of money on the race, somewhere between $10 million and $12 million, depending on which numbers you believe. With 186,000 votes cast, spending amounted to about $70 a vote. Most of this campaign money was spent on negative ads, some of which even the candidates didnt like. But candidates are powerless to do anything about them because election law prohibits candidates from coordinating in any way with outside groups. And after all these millions were spent and Tampa Bay area television viewers were much abused by unending negative ads, the election results were what could have been predicted by sending an intern down to the supervisor of elections office and inquiring about the party registrations in the district. Republicans enjoy about a 2 percent registration advantage in the district. Jolly won by 49 to 47 percent. Jolly and Sink won the votes of people in their own party and split the independents. About the only thing this election tells the keen political observer about the fall campaigns is that they will follow the summer. FACEBOOK STATUS OF THE DAY via Pinellas-based Democratic consultant Steve Lapinski: If you want to blame anyone for Alex Sinks loss, turn your fingers towards Nancy Pelosi and her Washington crew. They froze out all the potential Democratic candidates that were from Pinellas County and had won elections here. We could be congratulating a Democratic winner named Long, Justice or one of many others, but DCCC folks, in cahoots with the Tallahassee crowd, attempted to push an outsider on everyone. I hope the douchebags in Washington and Tally are proud of themselves. WINNERS AND LOSERS... Winners - Rick Baker - Inexplicably, Adam Smith has Baker in his Losers column just because Baker did not want to run for Congress. But in my book, Baker is a definite winner, serving as the Jeb Bush of Pinellas, as one Jolly adviser referred to him. Baker got in on the ground floor with Jolly, endorsing him and appearing in a TV commercial for him. No doubt that relationship will come in quite handy for Baker as he continues to, even out of office, run St. Petersburg. Sarah Bascom, Celina Parker, and the rest of the team from Bascom Communications & Consulting - Maneuvering a congressional candidate through the treacherous waters of the Tampa Bay media market is no day cruise. Not only did Bascom and Co. have to deal with an adversarial local newspaper, they had to interact with several local TV stations and a host of national reporters who acted more like tourists than journalists. Bascoms job wasnt made any easier by the anonymous national Republicans who were biting her ankles. But the reward for Bascom could not be sweeter: her cousin is now a U.S. congressman. How do you like them apples! Charlie Crist - The first instinct is to put Crist in the Losers column because his fellow Democrat lost an election, but thats hardly the case. First of all, did you notice which Pinellas Democrat didnt use up any of his political capital campaigning for Sink? Thats right, Crist, who previously helped winners Rick Kriseman, Ken Welch, and Darden Rice. With Sink losing, Crist no longer has to deal with her as a rival for some activists affection. He doesnt have to share donors with Sink. He doesnt have to worry about some top-notch talent working for Sink instead of him. Crist would never think, much less say this sort of thing, but Sinks losing is addition by subtraction. Crist is now Florida Democrats only hope. Michael Guju and Lenny Curry - Both Guju, the chair of the Pinellas GOP and Curry, chair of the Republican Party of Florida, needed a win after Rick Kriseman soundly defeated their candidate in last years St. Petersburg mayoral race. Both the local and state party expended considerable resources, be it volunteer time or money on direct mail, to help Jolly end the two-race streak of Democrat wins that could have really gained momentum had Sink won. Nick Hansen - The whirring sound you may have heard during the special election was the sound of Hansen crunching numbers and running spreadsheets. Just like one of his mentors, Jim Rimes, likes to do when hes not running the state Senate Majority Office. Hansen is now one of the chief political aides to, among others, the U.S. Representative from St. Petersburg and the state Senator from St. Petersburg. Local TV stations - Talk about Christmas coming early! Most of the eight figures spent in this race found their way to local television stations. Voters may not like all of those black-and-white, grainy negative commercials, but Bright House Networks and the broadcast stations just love them, especially at this time of year. The Money Men (Jim Holton, Paul Jallo, Jim McDougald and Mel Sembler) - The first indication of Jollys strength of a candidate was the early endorsement of the smart money crowd, despite at the time several more prominent names still considering running in CD 13. Now their, um, investment in Jollys campaign looks like it paid off. St. Pete Polls - No public survey firm was more in tune with CD 13 voters attitudes about Jolly and Sink than the hometown pollster. After taking a lot of criticism for some of its 2012 polling of Florida congressional races, Matt Florells team all but nailed this race with a poll in mid-February that showed Jolly winning by 2 percentage points and a later poll showing that Sink was leading early voters, but that the overall race was tied. Katie Prill - The spokesperson for the NRCC brought the right attitude to this race, constantly firing off zesty emails that kept bloggers and reporters on their toes. Well see a lot less of Katie going forward, but it was nice while we knew her. Marc Reichelderfer - The Marchitect (h/t to David Johnson) took a candidate who started out trailing his opponent by 15 points and counseled him to a two-point win. Yet some anonymous muffin complained to POLITICO that he was why Jolly would lose. How silly. Preston Rudie - From the passing of Congressman Young to his interview of Jolly regarding his role in the death many years ago of a pedestrian, the 10 News reporter consistently beat the local newspapers coverage of the race. Alan Suskey - Next time you see Suskey, ask him, Whats it like having one of your best friends and mentors be elected to Congress? Few individuals stand to benefit more personally and professionally than the Capitol Insight lobbyist. The Guy Who Predicted Jolly Would Win By 1.5 Points - Whoever that guy was, he is a genius ! Who was that guy? You can find out by clicking on this link. The Victory Group - Two words: Bob Barker. Bill Young II - It was hit or miss there for a while whether the passing of Congressman Young and Jollys ascension would hinder Young IIs plans to run for the Florida House, but today, he looks primed for a strong challenge to state Rep. Dwight Dudley. Losers - Tampa Bay Times - Other than Sink herself, no single person or institution, perhaps not even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, saw its reputation damaged more during this special election than the hometown newspaper. If I had a nickel for every person - Democrats, independents, and Republicans - who has wondered, Whats up with the Times?, Id be worth more than Bitcoin. From that ridiculous epilogue about the late Congressman Bill Youngs first family to its unending assaults on Jolly (imagine: Jolly lives in a beach community comprised mostly of those who rent!), the Times attempted to influence the outcome of this election more so than any local race Ive been involved with/observed in two decades of political consulting. But today, after betting so heavily on regionalist Sink, the congressman who represents much of the Times audience is diametrically opposed to its worldview. Nick Janovsky - With this high-profile loss, the shine is off one of the rising stars in state Democratic politics. Janovsky did nothing wrong, per se, but if the candidates plan for winning comes down to Election Day turnout by Democrats and lean-Democrat independents and you are the political director for the campaign, you have to shoulder some of the blame. Jack Latvala - Not only did Latvala hop aboard the Jolly bandwagon late, but Jollys win signals the solidifying of south Pinellas axis of power - Jolly, Jeff Brandes, Rick Baker - not necessarily opposed to Latvala, but clearly not aligned with his ambitions. Yes, these Republicans will support Latvala and his son, Chris, but its never been more clear that Latvala is no longer the boss of Pinellas. LCV Victory Fund - The League of Conservation Voters inexplicably dropped several hundred thousand dollars on ads against Jolly on the issue of climate change - an issue not at all on CD 13 voters minds no matter what LCVs polls say. Judithanne McLauchlan - The state Senate candidate challenging Republican Jeff Brandes would have loved to have both Crist and Sink churning out Democratic votes this November in Senate District 22, but now thats no longer the case. National media - The reporters and talking heads who descended on this race treated Congressional District 13 like just another outpost of OhFlorida, while also trying to build the narrative that the special election was a bellwether for the 2014 midterms. Few national journos came to fully understand the nuances of the community, repeatedly referring to the area as outside Tampa. Thats like saying Brooklyn is outside Manhattan - technically true but completely wrong otherwise. Alex Isenstadts piece about the NRCC complaining about Jollys campaign was more than The pros from Dover know better than the local yokels, it was a premature obituary of a candidate who was still very much alive. The national medias inability to really gauge this race was encapsulated by Mark Halperin, who, on Election Day, said twice that CD 13 was just northwest of Fort Lauderdale. Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times - From the outset of this race, when Smith was scooped by this blog about Sink entering the race, right up until the eve of the election, when he agreed with the assessment that there would be at least 200,000 votes cast, Smiths reporting has been off, off, off. But what was worse was the way Smith conducted himself throughout the race. When he was bitter and cynical, he was chasing the trivial, i.e, the post he wrote about Jollys shoes. The controversial headline he wrote about Jollys role in the death of a pedestrian - David Jolly killed a man was beyond irresponsible. Smith has lost significant credibility with some of his most loyal readers. Andy Stone, House Majority PAC - Like Ashley Walker, Stone is a top-notch operative who just happened to take on the chin this time. He did everything in his power to help Sink, but she was just not an impressive enough candidate to inspire low-intensity voters to turn out in a special election. Lets hope he has better luck with Gwen Grahams race in CD 2. Ashley Walker - For some reason Adam Smith has Walker in his Winners column, which I understand because a)Walker is a talented operative and b) she is one of Smiths top sources. But if Sink is the Denver Broncos of Florida politics, than Walker is Peyton Manning. Her candidate had every advantage in the world, but she couldnt get her across the goal line. Is Walker one of the two or three top Democratic operative in Florida? Probably. But, in politics, its often a case of What have you done for me lately? This loss coupled with the debacle that was the Miami Dolphins drive for a new stadium warrants Walkers place in the L column. FIVE TAKEAWAYS FROM CD 13 RACE via Curtis Krueger of the Tampa Bay Times... 1. Republicans show up on election day. 2. There is a case to be made for Sink in November. 3. If not Sink, then who? 4. Jolly says he will reach out to Democrats. 5 Maybe the Thonotosassa-Hillsborough County residence of Alex Sink thing mattered... Editors Note: MY opinion is ObamaCare mattered, Reducing our National Debt mattered, a Balanced Budget Amendment mattered, Sound Federal Financial Policy mattered, Immigration & securing our Borders mattered, a strong Military mattered & preserving Social Security with Medicare mattered. The voters decided Republican David Jolly was the person to best address these matters. Now we move on... Matt Bruce, Host of The Captains AMERICA Radio Show... Source: Sunburn Thursday March 13, 2014...
Posted on: Thu, 13 Mar 2014 12:17:52 +0000
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