THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH EAST AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AND APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDSOUTH AROUND NOON AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL FROM NOON TO 4 PM...THE MS RIVER TO A JACKSON TN TO OXFORD MS LINE FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM AND EAST OF THAT LINE TO THE TN RIVER AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE THE STRONG LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN QLCS WHICH COULD MOVE IN EARLIER THAN THE TIMES STATED ABOVE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT...GREATER THAN 65 KTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW EXPECT SOME BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2. AS A RESULT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE BOWING SEGMENTS OR SEMI-DISCRETE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE QLCS. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY EARLY ON DURING THE EVENT...THIS AFTERNOON INTO TH EARLY EVENING...ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...MO BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL IS A SECONDARY THREAT. THE QLCS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREAS BY MIDNIGHT WITH PROBABLY SOME TEMPORARY DRY SLOT CLEARING.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 12:23:10 +0000
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