THE RISE OF CHINA Prologue WHEN CHINA AWAKES, IT WILL SHAKE THE WORLD. Napoleon Bonaparte. Since Xi Jinping took over as Chinas President last year, his administration has struggled to resolve an inherent contradiction between the countrys peaceful rise and its growing military capabilities. Although Xi continues to put forward themes of peaceful development, Chinese foreign policy has also entered an era of greater assertiveness on territorial issues. [See Piero Sarmiento, China: Harmony vs. Power, FOREIGN POLICY IN FOCUS, 23 May 2014.] Given current trends, it is clear that China may replace the United States as the leading world economic power over the next decade, provided the United States does not strike back and provided Chinas profound class inequalities do not lead to major social upheaval. [See James Petras, China: Rise, Fall and Re-Emergence as a Global Power, GLOBAL RESEARCH, 30 April 2014.] The United States is watching Chinas military modernization with growing wariness and concern. United States disquiet focuses on Chinas increasing capacities for cyber and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, submarines and ballistic missiles. Moreover, the United States is concerned about Chinas hostility towards Taiwan, noting that Chinas military options against that island include limited force, an air and missile campaign, a blockade or an amphibious invasion. [See Jayshree Bajora, Chinas Military Power, BACKGROUNDER - COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, 4 February 2009 and US Department of Defense, Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China, ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, 2007.] Chinas emergence as a major economic power poses great challenges for the global community. Thus far, China is behaving as a responsible stakeholder in the international economy but the countrys economic take off has led to a large increase in military spending. (One estimate of such spending is US$188 billion a year.) To counter regional and wider worries, Beijing says that Chinas rise should be harmonious. However, recent provocative actions by China against Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam are increasing the concern that China might become belligerent. [See David Hale, Chinas New Dream: How will Australia and the world cope with the re-emergence of China as a great power?, AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC POLICY INSTITUTE, 12 February 2014.] Epilogue ONCE CHINA BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO STAND ALONE, IT MIGHT DISCARD US. A LITTLE LATER IT MIGHT EVEN TURN AGAINST US, IF ITS PERCEPTION OF ITS INTERESTS REQUIRES. Henry Kissinger. DR MICHAEL VAUGHAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST BRISBANE, QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA WEDNESDAY, 30 JULY 2014
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 00:10:04 +0000
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