THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS - TopicsExpress

THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLOWER-THAN- CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT ONLY 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE LACK OF OF DISTINCT OUTFLOW MECHANISM AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

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