THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper trough moves through from the west over next 24 hrs, with surface cyclone to the NW of Britain and another deepening secondary low further southwest. An active cold front moves east across the UK tonight, reaching the east coast by 06z. An unstable rPm airmass follows in wake of the cold front. ... WHOLE OF THE UK AND IRELAND ... Cold front, currently over Ireland, will continue east across the UK tonight reaching the east coast around 6am Sunday. Deep convection with thunderstorms have occured across Ireland this evening near/along this front, with a risk of further thunderstorms tonight with passage of the front over mainland UK - bringing hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall with a risk of localised flooding. Once this area of showers/storms near/along cold front clears the east of England during Sunday morning, further deep convection, with risk of thunderstorms, will spread in from the west across northern, central and western areas through the day - as upper trough overspreads from the west. Any thunderstorms that occur will be in a highly sheared environment characterised by deep layer shear of 30-60 knts and low-level shear of up to 35-40 knts across the UK and Ireland - which will be sufficient for storm organisation, with a risk of strong convective wind gusts and also isolated tornadoes cant be ruled out - the latter most likely near coastal areas where boundary layer will be most unstable given seasonally warm SSTs. Any potential severe weather events look to be rather isolated and difficult to pinpoint, so have refrained from issuing a SLIGHT risk to cover all the UK, but this doesnt mean a SLIGHT risk of severe weather will not materialize.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Oct 2013 11:53:55 +0000
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