THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SVR STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES TO MATERIALIZE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHERE SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE BACKED AND SUPPORT INCREASED STREAMWISE VORTICITY. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM W-CNTRL/SWRN KS INTO S-CNTRL KS AND N-CNTRL OK. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION-RELATED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING N OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A 20-30-KT LLJ ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDS ATOP THE SLOPING FRONTAL SFC. LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THESE PROCESSES EXTENDS TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL MODULATE THE LOCATION OF ENHANCED SVR POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE MODE...HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
Posted on: Mon, 29 Jul 2013 05:17:40 +0000
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