THOUGHTS REGARDING IRAN FROM GENERAL BOYKIN Iran has agreed to a UN brokered deal regarding its nuclear program but it is a MISTAKE to believe that this is going to stop the Iranians from building a nuclear weapon. In reality, this only temporarily halts portions of the program and rolls back nothing. It is also only a six-month agreement, which is to be renegotiated in May of 2014. The Iranians have a substantial stockpile of uranium that has already been enriched to 20%, which is the hard part of building a bomb. Once that 20% level has been reached, it is a much simpler and faster process to then reach the 90% level, which is required for a weapon. While I am pleased that the negotiations took place, I am very disappointed in the outcome. It should be obvious that this was not a good deal for the world since two traditional enemies are now unified in agreeing that this deal is bad. BOTH Israel and Saudi Arabia are warning that the Iranian nuclear program has not been hindered by this agreement. Both countries fear a nuclear Iran since they both are enemies of the Shiite mullahs of the Iranian Supreme Council, the governing body of the nation. Israel is obviously hated because they are Jews but Saudi Arabia is hated because they are a predominately a Sunni Muslim country. Don’t forget that because they are Arabs whereas the Iranians are predominately Persians, there is a second tier of animosity. The negotiations lifted some of the sanctions against Iran allowing them to do business with western businesses including the import of aircraft parts and exports of precious metals and other commodities, including oil. Iran stands to bring $7 to $8 Billion into their failing economy. There are several issues that must be considered when assessing this deal: 1) Iran gives up NONE of their enriched uranium. Furthermore, they can now claim that their sovereign right to enrich uranium has been agreed to by the UN. In reality, this is not the case because the agreement did not address the issue directly, which allows Iran to declare victory. Perception is reality in the region, and this gives them much room to play around in. 2) North Korea is one of Irans primary allies and supporters and will likely continue helping with testing, research, and production from inside North Korea. 3) Iran has agreed to allow more comprehensive inspections during the next six months. I would not bet that that is going to go well as I dont think the Iranians will follow through on that aspect of the agreement. Ducking U.N inspectors is almost a recreational sport in the Middle East. 4) This is a bad deal because the world has lost the momentum regarding stopping the Iranians. While the sanctions were not expected to actually stop the Iranians from building a warhead, they were important because they reflected a degree of unity by myriad nations in standing against the Iranian regime in its efforts to build a bomb. 5) Israel is very discouraged by this as they see this as another indication that America is not taking the threat of an Iranian nuclear program as seriously as they should. Israel sees this as a total win for Iran which in no way stops the Iranians from continuing to build a nuclear warhead. 6) The Obama administration needed this agreement to divert attention away from the abysmal rollout of Obama Care. And it seems to be working in the short term. As I wrote this, I kept coming back to three questions in my mind. These, to me, are keys to understanding the what may com in the next 6 months as we stand here today. First we must ask: “What happens in 6 months when this agreement has to be renegotiated?” The second question is: “Do we believe that Iran will live up to their end of the deal?” And finally: “Did we get anything meaningful out of this or was it a total bust for the US?” Let me provide my thoughts: 1) Six months from now, the Obama administration will have to acknowledge that this is yet another failed foreign policy like Egypt and Libya, or it will have to make more concessions to Iran. I doubt that the POTUS is going to admit that this deal has failed so there will likely be more concessions and that could include some form of US aid. Yea I know that sounds crazy but so did sending money and military hardware to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. But we did. We will not get anything substantive in return from Iran but BHO cannot have another failed policy on his record so the diplomats will praise Irans progress and cooperation so we can make more concessions. Iran has no intentions of being deterred from building a nuke. It is important to understand that a nuke is the only hope they have of taking a leading role in governance of the global caliphate that they see forming now with the uprisings throughout the Mid East and North Africa. Since the Iranians are Shia, they represent only 10% of the Islamic world so the nuke is essential to giving them a chance to move into a leadership role. Furthermore, they believe that they can usher in the reign of their messiah if they use a nuke on the hated Jews of Israel. 2) I do not believe that Iran will abide by the treaty provisions. It is highly doubtful that they will allow the level of inspections that are required and agreed upon. They will go through the motions but will not permit inspectors to see everything. What’s more, there is nothing to stop North Korea from continuing to test and develop components for Iran. The Iranians are proven liars and supporters of terrorism. Do you trust them to live up to a bargain? I do not. 3) So what did America get out of this agreement? The answer is simple; NOTHING! We turned our backs on Israel once again and got the nations attention off the abysmal rollout of Obama Care. The administration can now claim that they have delayed an Israeli strike on Iran through this agreement. Don’t be fooled. Benjamin Netanyahu will strike when he feels that he has no reasonable options left, regardless of what Obama thinks of it. But it sounds good to the uniformed American public to make a claim like this. In reality? This makes a strike even more likely. With a cessation of the sanctions against Iran, the world has lost its momentum and actually aided Iran in its efforts to build a nuke. We are simply going to have to continue to learn more about this and make better-informed judgments as more information becomes available. It’s too easy to be reactionary. Sometimes you need to let the situation develop before you can truly assess it. My initial reaction, though, is that it is a bad deal for America and the world and it puts Israel in a tough situation. America should be standing strong against Iran and letting them know that the military option is on the table. Also, America must stand with Israel and not back down when confronted by an evil regime like Iran.
Posted on: Wed, 27 Nov 2013 22:00:53 +0000
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