THUMPING WIN FOR BJP IN HARYANA WHILE UNDERPERFORMING IN MAHARASHTRA. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? 1. BJP underperformed my estimate of 29% voteshare in Maharashtra by 2 percentage points and hence comes in 20-25 seats short of estimated range. Shiv Sena scrapes to second place and got my estimated no. of seats and vote share. Principally, BJP failed to breach Western Maharashtra per expectations. NCP still calls the shots in many parts. On the other hand BJP and Sena split honours on Mumbai wiping out Congress and NCP. Its time for Raj Thackeray to do a sense check and curb his vitriol. MNS almost wiped out. OVERALL: BJP and Sena lost a chance to completely wipe out Congress and NCPs erstwhile influence in Maharashtra 2. BJP, INLD and INCs vote share estimates were borne out and all came in the mid point of my estimate range. However, BJP did NOT convert enough marginals and hence has come in about 5-6 seats shorter than this opportunity presented. OVERALL: People of Haryana seem to have taken Mr. Modis call to reject dynastic politics and the 4 principal dynasties. KEY TAKEAWAYS: I. THIS ELECTION EMPHATICALLY SEALS THE FIRM SHIFT OF INDIAN POLITYS CENTRE OF GRAVITY TO THE RIGHT OF CENTRE. II. APPEASEMENT AND VOTE BANK POLITICS HAS BEEN FIRMLY REJECTED AND PEOPLE WANT RESULTS, NOT RHETORIC AND HISTORICAL MISREPRESENTATION
Posted on: Sun, 19 Oct 2014 09:00:26 +0000
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