TN Valley Forecast Monday Morning, October 13, 2014 Thunderstorms will be around before sunrise in areas west of I-65 and across southern Tennessee. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially around the Shoals for the early morning hours. These storms are unrelated to our severe threat that comes late tonight and early Tuesday. Monday will be a very windy day and highs will easily eclipse the 80 degree mark by the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 miles per hour after lunchtime. An intense October storm system is deepening to our west, and a strong line of storms has already formed along the advancing cold front. There are no changes to the threats we expect– damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and hail will all be a possibility, as well as flash flooding. Timing continues to be tricky on when exactly these storms will arrive in the Valley. Most if not all the daylight hours will be dry. It’s not until after dark that the severe threat begins out towards the Shoals. It could very well be after midnight before this line of storms crosses I-65. Widespread Strong to Severe Storms Late Monday into Tuesday Threats: The primary threat will likely be damaging straight-line winds, but a secondary threat for tornadoes may also materialize. The reason the tornado threat is currently considered “secondary” is due to the uncertainty of whether there will be sufficient support for more than just isolated and brief tornadoes. It is possible the right mix of ingredients will come together such that the tornado threat will wind up superseding the straight-line wind threat. Timing: Storms could form as early as late Monday afternoon, but the highest threat is expected to develop Monday night, first in Northwest Alabama, and then gradually shift east Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Location: Every community in North Alabama and Southern-Middle Tennessee has a chance for severe weather, and everyone should be prepared in case hazardous weather affects your community. That being said, odds for more widespread severe weather are highest for towns furthest west, and slightly lower for those further east. Remember: Everyone should be prepared for severe weather Monday into Tuesday, regardless of where you live in the Valley. Discussion: Most of Monday will be warm and windy with only a low chance for storms during most of the daylight hours ahead of this approaching severe weather threat. Meanwhile, a line of storms will be marching through the states to our west, likely causing severe weather as they move east. Some individual storms may develop in Alabama and Tennessee ahead of the main line late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, these lone storms would be developing in a environment fairly rich for severe weather, likely without much competition for fuel. This early development is questionable and will depend on how capped the environment will be. The main line-and the highest severe weather threat-is expected to arrive in Northwest Alabama after sunset Monday evening and then slowly progress east through the rest of the Valley overnight and into Tuesday morning. Storms may not completely exit Northeast Alabama until early Tuesday afternoon. This timing scenario is not completely locked-in at this point, but this has been the consistent general expectation and is likely a good idea of how things will play out. Stay tuned for further refinements as we’re able to get more precise. Generally speaking, as the squall line enters Northwest Alabama, the ingredients necessary for significant severe weather may begin to separate from each other, creating a gradual decrease in the threat with time as the storms progress further east. But we mentioned it above, and it’s worth mentioning again: Everyone should be prepared for severe weather Monday into Tuesday, regardless of where you live in the Valley. Make sure the weather radio is plugged-in, turned-on, and has fresh batteries. This is the primary method we recommend you receive your warnings while at home. Additionally, we suggest several digital resources to keep you updated at home or on the road: After the Storms.. Fall Returns! A small chance for light showers may persist the following couple of days after the storms exit, but the majority of the second half of next week should be pleasant and dry, featuring cool nights and mild afternoons.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 08:55:30 +0000
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