TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1852 UTC 08/03/2014 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 13U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.0S Longitude: 149.8E Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km] Movement Towards: south southeast [168 deg] Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 09/0000: 17.6S 149.3E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 999 +12: 09/0600: 18.2S 149.5E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000 +18: 09/1200: 18.6S 149.2E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 999 +24: 09/1800: 18.8S 149.2E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 998 +36: 10/0600: 19.3S 148.8E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 986 +48: 10/1800: 18.9S 148.3E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 992 +60: 11/0600: 18.8S 148.1E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 998 +72: 11/1800: 18.0S 148.1E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 999 +96: 12/1800: : : : +120: 13/1800: : : : REMARKS: Dvorak analysis not particularly representative given the lack of persistent deep convection near the centre. Final T is 1.5 based on MET. The tropical low is expected to adopt a south-southwest track under the influence of a mid-level high situated near the Solomon Islands as the system becomes a little more vertically developed. The tropical low has barely developed over the past few days, and retains the structure of an asymmetric, broad monsoon depression. A recent Ascat pass at 1109 UTC showed an annulus of gales between 100 and 200 nm from the centre to the south of the system, with winds below gale elsewhere. Models generally persist with moderate vertical shear over the system, and maintain a significant vertical tilt and relatively shallow vortex. However, it does remain possible that the system could develop gales a little closer to the centre and wrap sufficiently around the system to attain category 1 tropical cyclone status on Monday.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Mar 2014 23:38:38 +0000
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