TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 6 Typhoon Ruby (Hagupit/1422/22W) 6 December 2014, 1.35 PM ANALYSIS As of 10.00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon Ruby was estimated at 180 km East Northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or at 260 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.1°N, 127.0°E). Based on latest observations, TY Ruby has weakened, with minimum sea level pressure of 925 hPa, maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and wind gusts topping 220 km/h. It has accelerated to 13 km/h as it maintains a westward movement. JAXA GSMaP estimates rainfall between 3.0 to 30 mm/hr Satellite date shows extensive shearing of the cyclones banding features from the western to northeastern quadrant as the typhoons central dense overcast is currently in an area of low to medium vertical wind shear (10-40 kts). The eye of TY Ruby is completely covered, and is starting to suffer from structural deformation, although the eyewall remains completely intact. The cyclone still possesses its dual upper-level outflow, although much of the northern outflow is being sheared off to the NW. FORECAST Except for NAVGEM output and USN JTWC forecast, almost all numerical prediction model outputs and official agency forecasts continue to agree with each other regarding the possible track of TY Ruby, suggesting a landfall between Northern Samar and Eastern Samar later this evening (6 December). The storm will then traverse Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Romblon, Marinduque and Mindoro provinces. On the other hand, NAVGEM output and USN JTWC forecast suggest that TY Ruby will miss Samar island, and will make its first landfall over Bicol Peninsula. It will then traverse the Bicol region, leave land for a few hours, then make landfall in Bondoc Peninsula. From here, the two models predict two different scenarios. NAVGEM predicts TY Ruby to his Batangas, while USN JTWC forecast suggests that the storm will traverse near Laguna de Bay, Metro Manila and Bataan Peninsula. Wind shear analysis suggests that TY Ruby will enter an area of medium to high vertical wind shear (20 to 40 kts). This, along with the continuing interaction with the high pressure ridge north of Luzon and the land friction due to landfall, will hamper further intensification. Weakening of TY Ruby is likely within the next 24 hours. NOTES 1. The general public is advised to stay tuned for further updates regarding the development of this tropical cyclone. 2. Residents living in the area of possible landfall (Northern-Eastern Samar provinces and Sorsogon) are advised to evacuate to safer grounds. LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. 3. This warning will be updated once newer prediction model outputs become available. SOURCES PAGASA-DOST/ WeatherOnline UK / USN JTWC / RSMC-Tokyo / KMA-NTC / UWM-CIMMS / JAXA EORC #BantayBagyo #RubyPH
Posted on: Sat, 06 Dec 2014 05:37:30 +0000