TSR LANDFALL SCENARIO TYPHOON LABUYO: NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Aug, 2013 0:00 GMT Typhoon UTOR (11W) currently located near 14.4 N 125.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s): Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours Hong Kong probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E) probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
Posted on: Sun, 11 Aug 2013 02:36:41 +0000
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