TUESDAY POKER TIP. Last week we showed you a really quick way to work out what your odds are to hit your outs on the turn and river. This is great to help you understand what odds it is to hit your cards, have a look back if you did not see this or don’t know how. But did you know you can use this, combined with your pot odds to work out if a call is smart or not, in its most basic form. This is known as Expected Value (EV). Pot odds are basically the amount you have to commit to a pot to complete the bet. The lower these odds are, the more likely you should call. You have a hand after the flop, there was $200 in the pot, your only opponent bet $100. Assuming you don’t want to raise so you can chase your hand, you have to put $100 into a $300 pot, giving you 3:1. Which as a percent would be 25% as the total pot is 400, and you are placing in 100. Assuming all the money into the pot so far is gone, so you only worry about what you are going to put in. This is where we count our outs and work out that we have 14 outs, which using our crude formula we have a 56% chance of hitting our out on the turn or river, much greater than 25%. Throw those chips in! If you don’t hit on the river and your opponent raises another $100, this means that the odds are now 1:5 or 17% to call. Your odds of hitting on the river are now approximately 28%. It is still a value proposition. The above is very basic, and doesn’t take into account a lot of factors but it is a great way to justify your calls at times and thinking on this level helps your game overall. Even if you lose, you make the right decision, when you are card dead or getting unlucky every hand it feels great to at least know you did the right thing. Please let us know what you think and feel free to add some tips of your own!
Posted on: Tue, 24 Jun 2014 05:37:09 +0000
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