Tensions at Sea: Taiwan-Philippines 6/7/2013 Introduction On May 9, a 65-year-old Taiwanese fisherman was killed when his boat was fired upon by the Philippine Coast Guard in the Balintang Channel. In response, Taipei demanded an official apology from the Philippine government, a joint investigation resulting in the arrest and punishment of the perpetrator(s), compensation for the family, and the start of discussions on a fisheries agreement. Due to Manila’s perceived failure to adequately meet these demands, Taiwan placed a restriction on new Filipino workers, temporarily recalled its diplomatic envoy from Manila, conducted fishery protection exercises, and heightened its travel warning to the Philippines to discourage tourism. Although not sanctioned by the Taiwanese authorities, there was at least one confirmed report of violence against a Filipino worker in Taiwan as well as the disruption of Philippine websites. While civilian deaths at sea are rare, this particular incident is characteristic of the intermittent maritime conflicts that take place on the South and East China Seas. Though these disputes by definition occur at sea, the true impact on OSAC constituents may occur on land, in the form of protests, trade and labor sanctions, and even cyber attacks. With that said, closer scrutiny of media coverage surrounding the incident revealed that misinformation and the inability to properly identify nuances may have exaggerated the actual impact. Impact Both Manila and Taipei are conducting investigations to determine exactly what happened on May 9. Questions include whether or not the Taiwanese fishing vessel tried to ram the Philippine Coast Guard ship and/or whether the actions of the latter constituted an excessive use of force or legitimate self defense. The precise location of the incident actually lies within the countries two overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which means it is their shared responsibility to determine maritime boundaries. This raises the possibility for similar conflicts in the future. Of more relevance to OSAC constituents is the impact that the altercation could have on the private sector. One point of confusion involves the fate of the estimated 87,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan. While Taipei is restricting work permits for new applicants, it will not deport the existing workforce and it will continue to renew permits for Filipinos currently in Taiwan. Also, while some Filipinos may work for U.S. enterprises, a vast majority (some 60,000) of the Filipino workforce are employed as domestic workers or in factories. It was reported that the decision by Taiwanese tour agencies to cancel nearly all tour packages to the Philippines could cause the country to lose up 50,000 tourists over the next six months, sending a ripple effect through the tourism and hospitality sector. The President of the Philippine Tour Operators Association, however, said he was confident that Taiwanese tourists would eventually return (citing an earlier sanction by Hong Kong and China that gradually eroded over time). Though Taiwanese fishermen may have initially protested outside the Philippine de facto embassy in Taipei, this has subsided as salmon season has begun and fishermen are back out at sea. As it relates to political violence, reports of multiple attacks of Filipinos residing in Taiwan may have been exaggerated. Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Police confirms only assault, in which a factory worker was mildly beaten at the very start of tensions. The Taiwanese government has urged calm and requested that citizens separate their animosity toward the Philippines government from their treatment of overseas workers who contribute to the local economy. References to “military drills,” made by several major international media outlets were clarified by the Taiwanese authorities to be joint (Navy and Coast Guard) fisheries protection exercises. Though the distinction may seem semantic, the choice of language is significant as it emphasizes resource management over potential armed conflict. Taiwan has said that it will continue to send Coast Guard and Navy patrol boats to the disputed area through the fishing season to protect the Taiwanese fishing fleet. Finally, while an AP story characterized President Ma Ying-jeou as “desperately in need of a public relations victory following a protracted economic slowdown,” his decision to take action several days after the incident was likely intended to shore up the support of the Taiwanese people who deemed his initial response weak and to get the Philippines to the negotiating table for fisheries talks. Outlook As the U.S. State Department made clear in a 2012 statement: “As a Pacific nation and resident power, the United States has a national interest in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, freedom of navigation, and unimpeded lawful commerce in the South China Sea. We do not take a position on competing territorial claims over land features and have no territorial ambitions in the South China Sea; however, we believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively and diplomatically to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats, and without the use of force.” Given this strong commitment to peace and stability in South China Sea by the United States, it seems likely that the U.S. private sector will see little to no direct security impact to their supply chains and other maritime interests in the foreseeable future. However, while open warfare in the South and East China Seas remains an unlikely phenomenon, continued small-scale incidents in the South and East China Seas may result in indirect on-shore security and business continuity issues for the U.S. private sector. International coverage should be approached with caution, as many of the stories carried by national media may have a bias. Regarding the statements made by authorities, it is important to recognize that while aggressively defending claims to sovereignty over disputed territories can underscore the strength and resolve of incumbent administrations, the parties involved tend to have little to gain from a protracted economic or political conflict. For Further Information Please direct any questions regarding this report or the general security situation in the Philippines to OSAC’s Regional Analyst for East Asia and the Pacific.
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 08:31:30 +0000
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