Thailand - political unrest / Bangkok shutdown Day 18 - an overview of the ongoing crisis and possible scenarios for Sunday 2 February elections Q&A on Thai political crisis - Facts BANGKOK, January 30, 2014 (AFP) - Here are key facts about Thailands political crisis ahead of elections overshadowed by an opposition boycott and threats by anti-government protesters to besiege polling stations: Q: What are the protests about? Thailand has been rocked by years of often-violent demonstrations by rival protest movements. The latest rallies, led by senior opposition figures, seek to curb the political dominance of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatras older brother Thaksin, a controversial tycoon turned politician who was ousted as premier in a military coup in 2006. The protesters want an unelected peoples council to run the country and oversee vaguely defined reforms to tackle corruption and alleged vote buying before new elections are held in around a year to 18 months. They say Yingluck is a puppet of her brother who controls her government from overseas, where he fled in 2008 to avoid going to jail for a corruption conviction. The rallies were triggered by a failed amnesty bill which could have allowed Thaksin to return without going to prison. Q: Who are the competing protest groups in Thailand? The Red Shirts, loyal to Thaksin, and their arch rivals the royalist Yellow Shirts -- who are no longer active -- have dominated Thailands street protest scene for years. Yellow rallies have helped to eject Thaksin or his allies from power three times, while support from the Reds swept Yingluck to power in 2011 in the wake of a deadly military crackdown on their street protests that left dozens dead. The latest opposition protesters are a mixture of former Yellow Shirts, Democrat supporters, royalists, southerners, urban middle class and other Thaksin opponents. The Red Shirts have staged rival protests in recent weeks in support of the government and have warned the army they would not accept another coup. Q: What are the possible scenarios? 1. Yingluck victory Voters could come out in force in support of the embattled government, taking the steam out of the opposition protests. Even in this scenario, election officials say the results may not be known for months and there will not be enough MPs to convene parliament -- leaving the government in a caretaker role -- until by-elections are held in constituencies where protesters blocked candidate registrations. 2. Election day chaos Protesters could block voters casting their ballots in many constituencies, throwing the election into disarray and leaving the kingdom in political limbo. The government could face a backlash from voters angry about the amnesty bill. Political deadlock could increase pressure on Yingluck to step down to make way for an interim government to oversee reforms before new polls are held at a future date. Q: Could the army or the courts intervene? The head of the army -- a staunch supporter of the anti-Thaksin royalist establishment -- has repeatedly refused to rule out seizing power again. But some observers see a coup as a last resort that would only happen in the event of chaos or major street violence, given the risk of an uprising by the Red Shirts. The courts also have a record of intervening in politics, dissolving parties and banning their executives, and some experts believe another judicial coup is the most likely scenario. Dozens of politicians from Yinglucks party face a possible five-year ban from politics in connection with a failed bid -- deemed unconstitutional by the courts -- to make the upper house fully elected. Yingluck is under investigation by an anti-corruption panel for possible neglect of duty over a controversial rice subsidy scheme. If found guilty she could face impeachment. The opposition could also ask the courts to annul the election results based on legal technicalities. thaivisa/forum/topic/700624-q-a-on-thai-political-crisis-facts/?utm_source=newsletter-20140130-1510&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news
Posted on: Thu, 30 Jan 2014 15:53:11 +0000
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