The 2013 World Energy Outlook is an attempt to forecast the next two decades of energy trends. It turns out every step towards reducing emissions in wealthy countries is met by a step back as energy demand soars in emerging markets just hitting their fossil fuels stride. The report shows a scary emissions chart. According to it, any reductions in developed economies are quickly subsumed by expansion in emerging markets. China will be the world’s largest oil importer, and India will be the largest source of energy demand and the world’s largest coal importer by 2035. And then, you’ve got the “carbon budget”—the amount of carbon that can be emitted before, in the IEA’s view, we’re irrevocably on the path toward a dangerous increase in the world’s temperatures of 2°C, despite predictions like China building more renewable energy plants than the US, EU and Japan combined. That’s a thin margin of error waiting for the world in 2035. Brazil’s contribution to future oil production is especially intriguing. We are aware of the country’s unique carbon footprint, and the WEO confirms it. A chart in the report shows that even as the country begins to exploit huge amounts of fossil fuels located offshore, it will still be running a cleaner electricity production sector than most of the world, where renewables still overtake gas as the second-largest source of electricity. And there’s one more interesting note on the implications of the shrinking impact of fracked oil and natural gas. Right now, the US benefits from cheaper industrial energy prices, one of the few things boosting manufacturing and giving hope to a broader revitalization of industry here. In the next two decades, however, that advantage will decrease—though not disappear—compared to its competitors, forcing American manufacturers to find an edge elsewhere.
Posted on: Wed, 13 Nov 2013 12:51:46 +0000
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