The 9 lives of Raila Amollo Odinga As debate rages on about the slowing down of Okoa Kenya and possibility of merging with governor’s Pesha Mashinani to create a large force leading to Referendum and Change, and on the backdrop of the failed saba saba revolution- the question must be asked, just who is Raila Amollo Odinga? The media coverage the former PM gets both in the print and electronic media pretty much on a daily basis is astounding and it is an understatement to admit that indeed this man has been the centre of gravity of Kenya’s politics certainly over the last decade. That Raila is a survivor, master tactician, and ‘ground connector’ is not in doubt. Where he suffers, is when it comes to strategy, management, focus and clarity. The son of Kenya’s first VP Oginga Odinga has been through many watershed turn points and emerged victorious even unscathed, to relentlessly soldier on. But with time and age catching up, he has about one more life line and the following are all the spent cartridges, chronologically of course: 1. 1982 coup. Barely aged 38 and with hardly any work experience the young Raila was somehow part of the web of planners that organized a coup de tat against 2nd president of Kenya Daniel Arap Moi with devastating consequences to life and property. The coup was quelled by the army but here’s what most Kenyans don’t know. Some of the leaders of that effort were hanged a few years later (on treason charges), Moi had to hide in a maize plantation at the height of the power grab and Hezekiah Ochuka the ring leader was ‘president’ after declaring take-over on KBC radio for at least 2 hours. Raila survived this ordeal, went to prison and I personally believe it has haunted him politically decades later in his quest for highest office in the land. 2. FORD Wamalwa threat. As the reform and political pluralism movement grew and strengthened, KANU and Moi’s days were numbered. The country in a mood for change, became more and more fearless, agitated and pro-Opposition. The leader of this movement was none other than Jaramogi. His son Raila along with Imanyara and Muite were staunch and dependable disciples. But here’s where it gets tricky. Mzee Jaramogi seemed to favour and tilt toward Kijana Wamalwa and James Orengo and the perception was he was grooming them to take over from him. This suggested that he viewed them as moderate intellectuals and his own son as a radical. It was only a matter of time before the struggle for the mantle would burst in the open and violence ever a ‘useful’ tool in Kenyan politics was unleashed wholesale at a delegates’ conference in Kasarani. Stories are told of how Wamalwa had to hide under a table as well as Jaramogi loudly and publicly admonishing his son saying something to the effect “ son, can you control those boys…can they stop yelling here yawa…” 3. NDP/KANU 2001 merger. Who can believe that the tiger of reform and having earned his full stripes in the political trenches and prisons would actually go to bed with KANU and succeed Joseph Kamotho as Secretary General! Sounds like fiction huh? Well this is what Raila did and such a radical move could easily destroy a career politician. Well Raila did it, before walking out badly crippling KANU and Moi. He later publicly remarked that he went into KANU to destroy it from inside. Rumors are rife that he emerged from this high risk operation 500 million bob richer, Molasses plant shenanigans are also around this period. 4. 2007. Anyone who paid attention saw Raila run a slick and hot campaign in 2007. His popularity grew weekly and across the country. He surged. Come Election day and he was sure to give the sitting president a walloping. But Kenya’s darkest days lay ahead. At vote count the second day, Raila was ahead by 1.8 Million votes. Then tallying stopped, confusion and anxiety set in and all hell broke loose. Seems Raila had ‘won’ got robbed (not a car but a whole presidency) and mayhem ensued. This kind of situation has many possible grave consequences. One can fall ill from it, even die. One can also get scandalized even accused in court. While people went to the International Criminal Court (ICC) he ended up in ‘power’. 5. South Sudan flight. In 2010 several big events happened in these parts of Africa. Kenya changed her constitution and Raila played a big part in campaigning for it as the feather in the cap of all his work and struggles for democratization. In the same year, South Sudan managed to finally break away from the Islamic, Arabic North. Raila as Prime Minister was one of the leaders invited to celebrate Independence day by the newest baby State in the world. Kenya’s general election was only 2 years away and with Kibaki required to exit by the Constitution (2 term limits) all eyes were on Raila who has never had a shortage of enemies. While boarded on a plane and preparing for take-off, Raila received a phone call. It is well known he relies on all manner of Intelligence reports to stay alive and safe. Talk of an assassination plot had been rife and several people close to him including cousin Jakoyo Midiwo and elder brother Oburu Odinga had been summoned to record statements with the police. Immediately after the call, he disembarked from the plane with his wife and boarded another one on the tarmac. 6. PENTAGON disintegrates. In 2007 as elections drew closer and as a response to the realities of the role of tribe in our politics, Raila set up what was to be known as the Pentagon. Borrowing heavily from terms and institutions of the powerful America, a country he certainly admires, Raila picked kingpins from various regions bringing them together and growing the party base and diversity in an unprecedented fashion. From Coast Najib Balala, Rift Valley William Ruto, Ukambani Charity Ngilu (he even had gender balance considerations), Western Musalia Mudavadi. Come 2012 and all leaders without exception deserted him and ODM. This ordinarily would destroy any politician anywhere in the world. But Raila is charismatic and himself manages to keep fans and supporters enthralled and guessing his every move. Out of the blue who comes calling? Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. A man with whom he had fallen out and spent many months in the young and complicated coalititon govt fighting and undermining one another, besmirching and waging protocol wars. They had a new found love and bromance, founded CORD and any serious political analyst will tell you that this ticket is arithmetically almost impossible to beat. They went on to win in 6 and half ‘provinces’ including Nairobi. 7. Men in Black. Believing CORD won the 2013 contest and he was robbed ‘yet again’ Raila mustered enough courage to call internal elections for ODM, his party and the principal member of CORD. Suspicion that infiltration had happened and a ‘confirmation’ at the last minute that indeed there was a force guiding candidates and outcomes (DP Ruto) the signal was given to disrupt the election in a most uncouth and dramatic fashion right in front of Raila’s eyes as he was in the building, all captured on national television. Again such a dastardly event would sink any politician. Raila quietly left the country and returned 2 months later to the biggest hero’s welcome ever seen in Kenya and which brought Nairobi and the country at large to a complete stand still. 8. Saba Saba. Here’s where things get very dicey. Overwhelmed by the welcome of Saturday May 31st and sensing the need to follow through and do ‘something’, buoyed by the level of discontentment and disillusionment among Kenyans with the new and young government Raila began growling and hissing about saba saba. Many believed he had received ‘training’ and assurances from strong Western powers that they would back him should he decide to make a move to run the Jubilee regime out of town. Observers were thinking along the lines of the ‘Arab Spring’ and asking is it time for an ‘African Spring’ especially given that all the ingredients were there? But for my part I doubted that Raila at his age and given his track record as PM, had the wherewithal and temerity to pull off this kind of thing against the younger Uhuru and Ruto. As the days ticked the rhetoric got hotter, anxiety rose and a business lady called me to say she was beginning to suffer diarrhoea as a result of worry. Raila’s supporters in their usual fashion proclaimed everywhere they were ready to do whatever he asked them to. Week after week political rallies he called got bigger, angrier and the criticism of government got sharper. What he had up his sleeve no one could imagine. And then saba saba came. The streets were deserted, no business dared open and what Raila was threatening as far as ‘shaving the president’ never happened. Supporters were so surprised, disappointed and angry. Raila was exposed as a paper tiger and this one incident really did him in. 9. Like a cat Raila has 9 lives. He has done and survived many twists and turns that would have put many an ordinary politician out of business long ago. But his time is running out. I believe he has one more life. Maybe one card, up his sleeve. The writer is a Political Analyst and Communications Consultant
Posted on: Tue, 09 Dec 2014 11:10:15 +0000
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