The Battle line is Drawn SPECIAL REPORT The aggrieved PDP governors have finally defected to APC, setting the stage for a dominant two-party structure in the country and drawing the battle line for the 2015 election. Vincent Obia looks at the evolving power configuration in the country and the APC/New PDP deal… From the Action Group in 1962 to Peoples Democratic Party in 2006, political realignments in Nigeria have almost always come in response to crisis. The goal is always the same: control of power. After months of disputation and horse-trading, the crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party ushered in a realignment of political forces on Tuesday. The splinter group in the party, New PDP, and five of the seven governors in the group – G7 governors – formally declared their defection to All Progressives Congress. Their Grouse Some state delegates, including seven governors, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, had walked out of the August 31 special national convention of PDP in Abuja in protest, to form New PDP. They cited systematic marginalisation or relegation in the party many of them had helped to found. There were attempts to fix the division and halt what was widely seen as the imminent disintegration of PDP, a party that prides itself on being the largest in Africa. But amid allegations of insincerity, the damage control measures led by President Goodluck Jonathan himself and, then, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, failed to bear good fruit. Jonathan’s second term ambition is believed to be behind the divisions in PDP. It had been pretty clear to many Nigerians that returning to PDP was not an option for the New PDP members, especially the seven governors – Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano). Some described such possibility as political suicide for the governors, particularly. So the time for the so-called peace effort was effectively an interlude for negotiations between New PDP and APC on the terms of a defection to the latter. The negotiations dragged and New PDP supporters actually seemed to despair as they awaited the consummation of a New PDP/APC pact. Finally, Defection Apparently, running out of public sympathy and, perhaps also, credibility, the New PDP leaders took the bull by the horns on Tuesday, as they formalised their defection to APC. The merger was announced by New PDP’s national chairman Abubakar Baraje, who read a communiqué issued after a meeting with APC leaders, held at the Kano State Governor’s Lodge in Abuja. The two-sentence communiqué, read by Baraje, said, “Leadership of APC and New PDP met this (Tuesday) morning at the residence of Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, in Abuja. After an exhaustive deliberation, the two parties agreed to merge in order to rescue our fledgling democracy and the nation.” Five of the G7 governors, namely, Wamakko, Ahmed, Amaechi, Nyako, and Kwankwaso were involved in the merger with APC. Shortly after the announcement of the defections, 49 PDP members of the House of Representatives also announced that they were crossing over to the opposition APC. New Political Map With the fusion of New PDP into APC, the opposition is growing in leaps and bounds. Though, with additional five governors, APC is still in the minority, it, nonetheless, now controls some of the biggest voting blocs in the country, the South-west states and Kano State. Before Tuesday’s defection of Wamakko, Kwankwaso, Ahmed, Amaechi, and Nyako, PDP had 23 governors, APC had 10, All Progressives Grand Alliance two, and Labour Party one. With the changes, APC now has 15 governors, with Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, an APGA member, effectively aligned to the opposition coalition, and PDP has 18. Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State, also an APGA member, and the only LP governor, Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State, are allies of Jonathan. It is widely rumoured that the two governors may join PDP. The alignments and realignments going on are surely about the 2015 general elections. No one knows how the politics would play out by then, but it is impossible to ignore the significance of the latest changes in an era when one political party, PDP, has maintained a stranglehold on national politics for nearly 14 years. APC States Have Superior Voting Strength It has, however, emerged from the demographic statistics of voters in the country that APC now controls areas with more voting population than PDP. This is despite the ruling party’s control of government in 18 states, plus the Federal Capital Territory, as against the opposition’s 16 states. A look at the national voter register published in 2011 by the Independent National Electoral Commission shows that the total voting strength of the 16 states currently governed by APC is 35, 096, 654, while that of the 19 PDP-controlled states is 29, 350, 346. Though, two opposition states, Anambra and Ondo, governed by All Progressives Grand Alliance and Labour Party, respectively, may align with PDP. Imo State is governed by an APGA governor, Chief Rochas Okorocha, who has effectively aligned himself with APC. PDP was boxed to the second position on the voter statistics table Wednesday following the defection of five of its governors to APC in an ominous culmination of the party’s protracted internal disputes.If everything goes well and the voting publics turn out according to their recorded strengths, APC may have electoral advantage over PDP in future national elections. Voters’ strength PDP 1. Kebbi 1, 603, 468 2. Katsina 2, 931, 668 3. Jigawa 1, 852, 698 4. Niger 721, 478 5. Kaduna 3, 565, 762 6. Bauchi 1, 835, 562 7. Gombe 1, 266, 993 8. Kogi 1, 215, 405 9. Plateau 1, 983, 453 10. Taraba 1, 308, 106 11. Benue 1, 415, 162 12. Enugu 1, 301, 185 13. Delta 1, 900, 055 14. Ebonyi 876, 249 15. Bayelsa 472, 389 16. Akwa Ibom 1, 714, 781 17. Cross River 1, 018, 550 18. Abia 1, 481, 191 19. FCT 886, 323 APC 1. Sokoto 2, 065, 508 2. Zamfara 1, 746, 024 3. Yobe 1, 182, 230 4. Borno 2, 730, 368 5. Adamawa 1, 714, 860 6. Kano 5, 135, 415 7. Kwara 1, 115, 665 8. Oyo 2, 577, 490 9. Osun 1, 293, 967 10. Ekiti 750, 753 11. Ogun 1, 869, 326 12. Lagos 6, 247, 845 13. Edo 1, 412, 225 14. Imo 1, 611, 715 15. Rivers 2, 419, 057 16. Nasarawa 1, 224, 206 APGA 1. Anambra 1, 758, 220 LP 1. Ondo 1, 558, 975 Caption; Hon. Bassey Dan-Abia Exit of G7 Governors Won’t Affect PDP’s Fortunes, Says Dan-Abia Hon. Bassey Dan-Abia (PDP/Akwa Ibom), in an interview with Onwuka Nzeshi, projects that the defection of 5 PDP governors would have little or no impact on the fortunes of PDP. Excerpts: What do you think of the recent move by the G5 Governors, dumping PDP? Don’t you think that what is happening could have an adverse impact on the chances of the PDP in 2015. It is normal to have some kind of disagreement or bickering wherever you have a group of people. PDP is a large family and when one kicks, it only shows that one is alive. It is expected; there is nothing special about what is going on now. There has never been a time we have not had some dissenting voices in the various political parties. I do not think that it will affect the chances of the ruling party come 2015. The majority of us are still intact, the party is strong and will only get stronger. As for the G7 or G5 governors, they are expressing themselves because politics more than any other thing is about interests. Whatever the interest that they are protecting, we believe that it would come to the fore in no distant time. The party is still very strong and formidable. Again, I do not think these governors would really leave the ruling party to play the politics of the opposition. Why do you think they would not eventually leave? They know that the PDP as a party has stood the test of time. We have recorded a lot of achievements particularly under this present administration. They also know that whatever their fears and the aspirations of the people they represent can only be championed and better protected by the Peoples Democratic Party. Even in the face of this open invitation and poaching by the APC? Well, as an opposition party, you do not expect anything less from the APC. It is not the first time. We have always heard of people moving from one party to the other. It is not strange and I don’t see anything coming out of it. Besides, I am not a prophet, it is also possible that they may go to the opposition but for the PDP, it would only make us stronger. What do you make of the Oyinlola challenge? The man appears to be standing astride the PDP and the opposition camp. What are the implications of this scenario? I believe that this is one issue that is so clear, so self explanatory and there is no ambiguity. From a legal perspective, the man(Oyinlola) jumped the gun because he was not removed by the party. It was actually the party that elected him but he was removed by a court of competent jurisdiction. But that court was a court of first instance. Now he did well to had gone on an appeal but he did not remain with the facts of the issue. He now left the party as it were and went into something he called the new PDP and was even involved in some letter writing to INEC asking to be excluded from the PDP and to be recognised as the scribe of the so called new PDP. So the facts and circumstances available now if they were made available to the Court of Appeal, I am not sure he would come out with the judgement he got. I believe that the judgment of the Court of Appeal have been overtaken by these new facts and circumstances surrounding his activities in the new PDP. But don’t forget that his actions are not just anti-party activities but they are grossly against the interest of the ruling party. The facts of the matter now are completely different from what they were when he appealed the judgment of the court of first instance. Now he is no longer in the PDP fold but with the new PDP which is completely unknown to the law. So in the circumstance, I do not see how he fits in again into the PDP, not withstanding the judgment of the Court of Appeal. However, it is the prerogative of PDP to decide whether or not to re-admit him into the party. So if the party says he stands suspended as a result of his anti-party activities, it is very well in order. The proposed National Dialogue is still a subject of controversy; what’s your position on it? Well, I must say that we represent the people and not ourselves. Often times the people make some calls which may not necessarily have clear provisions in the Constitution but are not by themselves illegitimate. If the people we represent say they want to talk and have demanded for a national conference, then it would be wrong for me their representative by election to say they should not have what they desire. You can see what is happening the world, particularly the Arab Springs. It is not a matter of constitution; the people didn’t need to consult the grund norm before they took to the streets. The people were just fed up with the system and look at what they did to their governments. In our own case, our people are a lot more civil and enlightened and they feel that we should continue with our legislative duties while they themselves meet to seek ways of making our country better. So I see the call for a national conference as something positive rather than negative. I also want to applaud Mr President for his courage in accepting the peoples clamour for a national conference. However, it is strange to find some people who had always clamoured for the same conference now saying that the President has a hidden agenda. It is strange because it was the masses who agitated for the conference and the President merely acceded to this popular request. A committee has been set up to fine tune the modalities of this national engagement to make a lot more meaningful, result oriented and profitable to the people. The idea is to make it different from all other conferences held in the past. I believe that rather than criticising the President, Nigerians should be thinking of how well we can seize the opportunity to make our country better. I believe that every segment of the society including the legislature should be involved and we should all join hands to make the exercise a success. If the outcome of the National Conference is sent to the National Assembly, how would the legislature manage it alongside the ongoing Constitution Amendment? I believe that we have not touched on every area of the constitution or every issue that should be of interest to us as Nigerians. Now, for those areas that we have already touched, I believe we can carry on with them in the constitutional amendment. There is nothing wrong with further alterations to the constitution when the report of the conference comes. If the report eventually comes and it reflects the collective aspirations of the people of Nigeria, we don’t have any other choice but to capture them in the amendments to the constitution. There are so many grey areas which Nigerians need to jaw- jaw at the conference and if Mr President has suggested that the report would be sent to the National Assembly, I believe he did so based on his knowledge of the constitution. He knows that the bulk of the constitution amendment process rests with the National Assembly and the State Houses of Assembly. So the President was not wrong in what he said about sending the report to the National Assembly. If any person has any contrary view to the suggestion made by the President, it means such a person is looking at the amendment of our laws even before we engage in the national conference. But as for the laws that in place as at today, there is absolutely no way that the report from the national conference can become law if it does not go through the process of constitutional amendment as provided in Section 9 of the Constitution. Tags: Featured, News, Nigeria, Special Report  (0) Rating: . . Latest News FCMB Rolls Out Savings Promotion 01 Dec 2013 . New Auto Policy and Vehicles Import 01 Dec 2013 . A Global View on Financial Inclusion: Perspectives from a Frontier Market (2) 01 Dec 2013 . Will Blackberry 9720 Sway Market Opinion? 01 Dec 2013 . Will Blackberry 9720 Sway Market Opinion? 01 Dec 2013 . APC versus PDP 01 Dec 2013 Font Size: a / A  The Battle line is Drawn SPECIAL REPORT The aggrieved PDP governors have finally defected to APC, setting the stage for a dominant two-party structure in the country and drawing the battle line for the 2015 election. Vincent Obia looks at the evolving power configuration in the country and the APC/New PDP deal… From the Action Group in 1962 to Peoples Democratic Party in 2006, political realignments in Nigeria have almost always come in response to crisis. The goal is always the same: control of power. After months of disputation and horse-trading, the crisis in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party ushered in a realignment of political forces on Tuesday. The splinter group in the party, New PDP, and five of the seven governors in the group – G7 governors – formally declared their defection to All Progressives Congress. Their Grouse Some state delegates, including seven governors, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, had walked out of the August 31 special national convention of PDP in Abuja in protest, to form New PDP. They cited systematic marginalisation or relegation in the party many of them had helped to found. There were attempts to fix the division and halt what was widely seen as the imminent disintegration of PDP, a party that prides itself on being the largest in Africa. But amid allegations of insincerity, the damage control measures led by President Goodluck Jonathan himself and, then, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, failed to bear good fruit. Jonathan’s second term ambition is believed to be behind the divisions in PDP. It had been pretty clear to many Nigerians that returning to PDP was not an option for the New PDP members, especially the seven governors – Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Sule Lamido (Jigawa), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano). Some described such possibility as political suicide for the governors, particularly. So the time for the so-called peace effort was effectively an interlude for negotiations between New PDP and APC on the terms of a defection to the latter. The negotiations dragged and New PDP supporters actually seemed to despair as they awaited the consummation of a New PDP/APC pact. Finally, Defection Apparently, running out of public sympathy and, perhaps also, credibility, the New PDP leaders took the bull by the horns on Tuesday, as they formalised their defection to APC. The merger was announced by New PDP’s national chairman Abubakar Baraje, who read a communiqué issued after a meeting with APC leaders, held at the Kano State Governor’s Lodge in Abuja. The two-sentence communiqué, read by Baraje, said, “Leadership of APC and New PDP met this (Tuesday) morning at the residence of Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, in Abuja. After an exhaustive deliberation, the two parties agreed to merge in order to rescue our fledgling democracy and the nation.” Five of the G7 governors, namely, Wamakko, Ahmed, Amaechi, Nyako, and Kwankwaso were involved in the merger with APC. Shortly after the announcement of the defections, 49 PDP members of the House of Representatives also announced that they were crossing over to the opposition APC. New Political Map With the fusion of New PDP into APC, the opposition is growing in leaps and bounds. Though, with additional five governors, APC is still in the minority, it, nonetheless, now controls some of the biggest voting blocs in the country, the South-west states and Kano State. Before Tuesday’s defection of Wamakko, Kwankwaso, Ahmed, Amaechi, and Nyako, PDP had 23 governors, APC had 10, All Progressives Grand Alliance two, and Labour Party one. With the changes, APC now has 15 governors, with Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, an APGA member, effectively aligned to the opposition coalition, and PDP has 18. Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State, also an APGA member, and the only LP governor, Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State, are allies of Jonathan. It is widely rumoured that the two governors may join PDP. The alignments and realignments going on are surely about the 2015 general elections. No one knows how the politics would play out by then, but it is impossible to ignore the significance of the latest changes in an era when one political party, PDP, has maintained a stranglehold on national politics for nearly 14 years. APC States Have Superior Voting Strength It has, however, emerged from the demographic statistics of voters in the country that APC now controls areas with more voting population than PDP. This is despite the ruling party’s control of government in 18 states, plus the Federal Capital Territory, as against the opposition’s 16 states. A look at the national voter register published in 2011 by the Independent National Electoral Commission shows that the total voting strength of the 16 states currently governed by APC is 35, 096, 654, while that of the 19 PDP-controlled states is 29, 350, 346. Though, two opposition states, Anambra and Ondo, governed by All Progressives Grand Alliance and Labour Party, respectively, may align with PDP. Imo State is governed by an APGA governor, Chief Rochas Okorocha, who has effectively aligned himself with APC. PDP was boxed to the second position on the voter statistics table Wednesday following the defection of five of its governors to APC in an ominous culmination of the party’s protracted internal disputes.If everything goes well and the voting publics turn out according to their recorded strengths, APC may have electoral advantage over PDP in future national elections. Voters’ strength PDP 1. Kebbi 1, 603, 468 2. Katsina 2, 931, 668 3. Jigawa 1, 852, 698 4. Niger 721, 478 5. Kaduna 3, 565, 762 6. Bauchi 1, 835, 562 7. Gombe 1, 266, 993 8. Kogi 1, 215, 405 9. Plateau 1, 983, 453 10. Taraba 1, 308, 106 11. Benue 1, 415, 162 12. Enugu 1, 301, 185 13. Delta 1, 900, 055 14. Ebonyi 876, 249 15. Bayelsa 472, 389 16. Akwa Ibom 1, 714, 781 17. Cross River 1, 018, 550 18. Abia 1, 481, 191 19. FCT 886, 323 APC 1. Sokoto 2, 065, 508 2. Zamfara 1, 746, 024 3. Yobe 1, 182, 230 4. Borno 2, 730, 368 5. Adamawa 1, 714, 860 6. Kano 5, 135, 415 7. Kwara 1, 115, 665 8. Oyo 2, 577, 490 9. Osun 1, 293, 967 10. Ekiti 750, 753 11. Ogun 1, 869, 326 12. Lagos 6, 247, 845 13. Edo 1, 412, 225 14. Imo 1, 611, 715 15. Rivers 2, 419, 057 16. Nasarawa 1, 224, 206 APGA 1. Anambra 1, 758, 220 LP 1. Ondo 1, 558, 975 Caption; Hon. Bassey Dan-Abia Exit of G7 Governors Won’t Affect PDP’s Fortunes, Says Dan-Abia Hon. Bassey Dan-Abia (PDP/Akwa Ibom), in an interview with Onwuka Nzeshi, projects that the defection of 5 PDP governors would have little or no impact on the fortunes of PDP. Excerpts: What do you think of the recent move by the G5 Governors, dumping PDP? Don’t you think that what is happening could have an adverse impact on the chances of the PDP in 2015. It is normal to have some kind of disagreement or bickering wherever you have a group of people. PDP is a large family and when one kicks, it only shows that one is alive. It is expected; there is nothing special about what is going on now. There has never been a time we have not had some dissenting voices in the various political parties. I do not think that it will affect the chances of the ruling party come 2015. The majority of us are still intact, the party is strong and will only get stronger. As for the G7 or G5 governors, they are expressing themselves because politics more than any other thing is about interests. Whatever the interest that they are protecting, we believe that it would come to the fore in no distant time. The party is still very strong and formidable. Again, I do not think these governors would really leave the ruling party to play the politics of the opposition. Why do you think they would not eventually leave? They know that the PDP as a party has stood the test of time. We have recorded a lot of achievements particularly under this present administration. They also know that whatever their fears and the aspirations of the people they represent can only be championed and better protected by the Peoples Democratic Party. Even in the face of this open invitation and poaching by the APC? Well, as an opposition party, you do not expect anything less from the APC. It is not the first time. We have always heard of people moving from one party to the other. It is not strange and I don’t see anything coming out of it. Besides, I am not a prophet, it is also possible that they may go to the opposition but for the PDP, it would only make us stronger. What do you make of the Oyinlola challenge? The man appears to be standing astride the PDP and the opposition camp. What are the implications of this scenario? I believe that this is one issue that is so clear, so self explanatory and there is no ambiguity. From a legal perspective, the man(Oyinlola) jumped the gun because he was not removed by the party. It was actually the party that elected him but he was removed by a court of competent jurisdiction. But that court was a court of first instance. Now he did well to had gone on an appeal but he did not remain with the facts of the issue. He now left the party as it were and went into something he called the new PDP and was even involved in some letter writing to INEC asking to be excluded from the PDP and to be recognised as the scribe of the so called new PDP. So the facts and circumstances available now if they were made available to the Court of Appeal, I am not sure he would come out with the judgement he got. I believe that the judgment of the Court of Appeal have been overtaken by these new facts and circumstances surrounding his activities in the new PDP. But don’t forget that his actions are not just anti-party activities but they are grossly against the interest of the ruling party. The facts of the matter now are completely different from what they were when he appealed the judgment of the court of first instance. Now he is no longer in the PDP fold but with the new PDP which is completely unknown to the law. So in the circumstance, I do not see how he fits in again into the PDP, not withstanding the judgment of the Court of Appeal. However, it is the prerogative of PDP to decide whether or not to re-admit him into the party. So if the party says he stands suspended as a result of his anti-party activities, it is very well in order. The proposed National Dialogue is still a subject of controversy; what’s your position on it? Well, I must say that we represent the people and not ourselves. Often times the people make some calls which may not necessarily have clear provisions in the Constitution but are not by themselves illegitimate. If the people we represent say they want to talk and have demanded for a national conference, then it would be wrong for me their representative by election to say they should not have what they desire. You can see what is happening the world, particularly the Arab Springs. It is not a matter of constitution; the people didn’t need to consult the grund norm before they took to the streets. The people were just fed up with the system and look at what they did to their governments. In our own case, our people are a lot more civil and enlightened and they feel that we should continue with our legislative duties while they themselves meet to seek ways of making our country better. So I see the call for a national conference as something positive rather than negative. I also want to applaud Mr President for his courage in accepting the peoples clamour for a national conference. However, it is strange to find some people who had always clamoured for the same conference now saying that the President has a hidden agenda. It is strange because it was the masses who agitated for the conference and the President merely acceded to this popular request. A committee has been set up to fine tune the modalities of this national engagement to make a lot more meaningful, result oriented and profitable to the people. The idea is to make it different from all other conferences held in the past. I believe that rather than criticising the President, Nigerians should be thinking of how well we can seize the opportunity to make our country better. I believe that every segment of the society including the legislature should be involved and we should all join hands to make the exercise a success. If the outcome of the National Conference is sent to the National Assembly, how would the legislature manage it alongside the ongoing Constitution Amendment? I believe that we have not touched on every area of the constitution or every issue that should be of interest to us as Nigerians. Now, for those areas that we have already touched, I believe we can carry on with them in the constitutional amendment. There is nothing wrong with further alterations to the constitution when the report of the conference comes. If the report eventually comes and it reflects the collective aspirations of the people of Nigeria, we don’t have any other choice but to capture them in the amendments to the constitution. There are so many grey areas which Nigerians need to jaw- jaw at the conference and if Mr President has suggested that the report would be sent to the National Assembly, I believe he did so based on his knowledge of the constitution. He knows that the bulk of the constitution amendment process rests with the National Assembly and the State Houses of Assembly. So the President was not wrong in what he said about sending the report to the National Assembly. If any person has any contrary view to the suggestion made by the President, it means such a person is looking at the amendment of our laws even before we engage in the national conference. But as for the laws that in place as at today, there is absolutely no way that the report from the national conference can become law if it does not go through the process of constitutional amendment as provided in Section 9 of the Constitution.
Posted on: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 15:23:29 +0000
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