The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has now killed 2,288 people (with 4,269 cases) according to the World Health Organization, but is accelerating dramatically. In a rather stunning admission, WHO warns, conventional means of controlling the outbreak are not working as the last 3 weeks have seen the number of cases and deaths double. The models show an EXPONENTIAL GROWTH PATTERN, where each infected person infects 1.5 to 2.0 others. The RATE OF GROWTH is the most significant thing with a doubling in the last 3 weeks. The figures available to the WHO are only those provided by the countries themselves--dirt poor third world countries without medical care in smaller towns and villages. Most of the dead are buried without ever reaching a diagnosis. Thus, the number of unreported cases of Ebola is estimated to be 4 to 10 times higher than these reported cases to which the WHO has access and is reporting here. One of the few brighter notes on this epidemic is that medical support (mostly IV fluids to combat the dehydration from vomiting and diarrhea) seems to significantly reduce the case fatality rate.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 00:25:28 +0000
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