The France Business Forecast Report Key Uses • Forecast the pace and stability of Frances economic and industry growth through end-2018. • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation. • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability. • Contextualise Frances country risks against regional peers using BMIs country comparative Risk Rankings system. • Evaluate external threats to doing business in France, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies. Economic Outlook: How will the France economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018? BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for France through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management. Economic Outlook Contents The France Business Forecast Report features BMIs forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMIs evaluation of global and regional prospects. Key Areas Covered: Data: • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate. • BMIs comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context. Written Analysis: • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence). • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account. • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price). • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves. • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms. • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate. • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure). • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone. Key Benefits • Rely upon BMIs 100% independent forecast scenarios for France and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned. • Exploit the benefits of BMIs comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on France, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts. • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your companys business prospects, from BMIs team of analysts and economists. Political Outlook: What are the political risks to doing business in France over the next 5-years? BMIs France country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability. Political Outlook Contents • SWOT Analysis for the France Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing France. • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMIs Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Frances risk are compared with regional and global averages. • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment. Key Benefits • Benchmark Frances risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets. • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your companys current operations and future plans. • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMIs specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources. Business Environment Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for France, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours. Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Frances business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours. Business Environment Contents • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT. • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors. • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas. Key Benefits • Assess your companys evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMIs in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment. • Understand your markets comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMIs proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings. Key Sector Outlook Which industry sectors in France will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market? BMIs identifies investment opportunities in Frances high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT. Key Areas Covered: • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance. • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using BMIs proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry. • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMIs industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry. Key Benefits • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities. • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 21:46:44 +0000
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