The Saudi Spring? (Tarek Osman, Project Syndicate) Many Saudis sense a wasted opportunity; despite sitting atop one of historys most liquid fortunes, the country has failed to become an advanced economy. And Saudi Arabias large middle class is likely to respond to diminishing prosperity by calling for a more representative political system. The problem is that the obvious challenges facing Saudi Arabia require a level of cohesion in the upper echelons of government that remains elusive. As the journalist Christian Caryl put it, to say that historical or economic conditions predispose a country to embark on a particular path does not mean that its politicians will necessarily decide to take it. The continued absence of resolute action could easily drive Saudi Arabia toward irreversible decay. In such a scenario, the economy would gradually weaken, hampering the royal familys ability to continue buying middle-class support, while enabling rebel groups in the east and the south to erode the governments authority. This could cause Wahhabi religious and political doctrine to lose ground among young people and fuel regime infighting. Ultimately, Abdulaziz bin Sauds unification of the Kingdom in the late 1920s could even be reversed, making the last eight decades an anomaly in the Arabian Peninsulas long history of fragmentation. Such an outcome would effectively make Yemen and the rest of the Gulf states ungovernable, allowing the Sunni-Shia confrontation that is currently unfolding in the Levant to overwhelm the region.
Posted on: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 15:52:21 +0000
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