The Third Front: Ginger Group to Take on the Congress and BJP The banding together of political leaders of 11 non-Congress and non-Bharatiya Janta Party, led by four Left parties at the Tripura Bhavan in New Delhi grabbed the nation’s eye balls, Feb. 25. In the run up to the May Lok Sabha polls this regional and Left conglomerate, touted by many analysts to enjoy more than half the vote share of the country, has sought to put up a Third Front, an alternative to the dominant political players, the Congress and BJP, writes Priyanka Bhardwaj. The first bugle of this formation was sounded last November when 17 parties joined the Left backed convention to fight communalism. But finally only 11 party leaders turned up. While Prafulla Kumar Mahanta of Asom Gana Parishad and Naveen Patnaik of Biju Janata Dal were absent most certainly to keep space open for a post-poll maneuvering, the likes of CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat, Samajwadi Party Chief Mulayam Singh and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of JD(U) rubbed shoulders at the same stage. Other political heavyweights in attendance were H.D. Deve Gowda (JD-S), veteran CPI leader A.B. Bardhan, M. Thambidurai (AIADMK), T.J. Chandrachoodan (RSP), Debabrata Biswas (Forward Bloc), Sitaram Yechury (CPI-M), K.C. Tyagi (JD-U), S. Sudhakara Reddy (CPI) and leaders of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. At the hour-long meeting a joint charter of programs was thrashed for “strengthening democratic framework, creating a true federal system and special category of deserving states, ending corruption and ensuring accountability in government,” and “establishment of a firm secular order in line with plurality and diversity of our society.” Promises for “a people-oriented developmental path that addresses the concerns of inequality, social justice, farmers’ interests, minorities and women’s rights” were also made. The combine finally declared their aim to “throw out the corrupt Congress from power” and defeat the communal BJP. As of now, the combine’s vehemence of not joining the Congress or the BJP to form a central government even in the eventuality of any failure to acquire 272 seats in the Lok Sabha is clear and for both the Congress and BJP the ginger group evinced not an iota of liking. Samajwadi Party supremo sounded presspersons of possibility of more political parties jumping in to join the Third Front and quoted the numbers of entrants to four more. Interestingly, while personal Prime Ministerial ambitions of Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh, J. Jayalalithaa and Deve Gowda are all too well known, this loosely formed entity decided to arrive at a consensus candidate after considering poll performance. Reaffirming their unanimity, Samajwadi Party chief reiterated, “Never ever in the past have we fought on this issue. We have had Morarji Desai, V.P. Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral. All these names were decided unanimously after the polls.” Analysis Though short lived, the Third Front(s) have been an oft-repeated phenomenon in India’s political history. In 1977 the first Third Front led by Morarji Desai, enabled by an earlier version of current BJP and with outside support of the Left, had demolished the invincibility of the Congress at the general elections. Again Third Front formations manifested in the form of V.P. Singh-led government in 1989 and then 11 months later by the Congress supported, Chandrashekhar-led coalition. In 1996 and 1997 the Third Front formations of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral, respectively, were instituted but like every earlier instance, these too disseminated before finishing their full terms. Undeterred by past non-viability of the Third Front governments, Karat once again has resolved to put in place a loose alliance to take on mighty national players and in the process, accrue some much needed political relevance to the Left that has been left nursing its wounds in Tripura after its brutal defeat in erstwhile strongholds of West Bengal and Kerala. Though the BJP and Congress may liken TFs to a recurring mirage, one cannot negate the importance of the leaders of these regional parties who have in recent past enjoyed more electorate share and have higher geographical reach vis-à-vis national parties. Going by statistics, in 1996 the combined vote share of Congress and BJP dipped below 50 percent and still remains low though intermittently, in 1999 elections, there was a slight upsurge in the figures. In the last general elections, the vote share of non-major parties was more than 50 percent and in 12 states these parties polled more than 40 percent votes. The United Progressive Alliance I & II governments are also testimonies to the influence of the regional parties and their leaders in contouring the central governments and influencing policymaking decisions. Equally interesting would it be to observe regional parties arrive at seat-adjustments during pre-polls and then stick together, for it is a fact that major winners poach allies from loose formations. On the issue of seat sharing Karat stresses, “Every party has strength in its own areas and states. We will pool our resources at the all-India level after the elections.” But reports from Tamil Nadu suggest otherwise as AIADMK has released a list of its candidates for all 40 seats despite a seat-sharing pact with the Left parties just two weeks ago. The JD(U) has also announced its candidates for all 40 seats in Bihar apart from a few more seats in other parts of the country. Severe contention for the Third Front is surely to be expected from the Trinamool Congress, an archrival of the Left. TMC Member of Parliament, Derek O’Brien has tweeted and spoofed at the Third Front calling it “a non-starter and a still-born” and a means for “regional parties to manipulate their way without responsibilities at the Center.” Outside the political sphere, business houses that are betting on Narendra Modi’s chances of winning the polls because of his pro-development agenda based on his much acclaimed Gujarat model have expressed doubt if Third Front would make for a market-friendly regime. Poll surveys indicate the Congress is fast losing its vote share and the BJP making rapid strides, and there is a mixed feeling among political observers if the Third Front, that has come rather too late in the day, will be able to slacken BJP’s forward pace. However, the May polls might have in store a few surprises as new contenders are fast encroaching into the space of every old party and a prominent such player is the Aam Admi Party. With its anti-corruption tirade, pro-common man view and sans caste or communal affiliations the AAP has gripped popular imagination. In the possibility of AAP making for a strong pan-India debut and winning 30-40 seats could present a chance to the Third Front, which is in denial at present, to look for a consensus candidate from AAP. Such a consensus Prime Minister of the constituents and potential constituents of Third Front could glue together sworn regional enemies; Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, AIADMK and DMK, TMC and the Left, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. If AAP could form the Delhi Government and keep it going for 49 days with the help of outside Congress support, a similar AAP-led central coalition of the Third Front constituents cannot be ruled out as a far-fetched assumption.
Posted on: Mon, 24 Mar 2014 11:23:09 +0000
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