The UN Security Council will today pass a resolution to Defer Kenyan ICC cases hearings by 11 to 13 votes and the 2 to 4 remaining parties will most likely have abstained and take Note! No Veto-ing will take place. You think my prediction is Bold or far-fetched? . . . . In that case i diagnose you with ignorance, naivety and chronic stupidity. Before you sermon the tribal card, your unrelenting mercy for the victims and the rule of law. . . . lets take a step backward and analyze the dynamics at play in this situation. 1) While we yell justice and peace for the victims should come first.... super powers could careless who gets justice or peace in the world leave alone africa. for some reason african are deluded that the west cares for their well being while in actual fact the west puts its own interest 1st before anything else that inclusive of justice and peace. the west does not do no-strings-attached favours. everything must pay up in the long run. in our Kenyan situation the choices are either to deny the deferral in favour of justice OR grant deferral in favor of peace. dont expect the west to take the moral high-lane and go for justice. why?. . . its in the best interest for the west for peace to prevail in kenya because that will pay up to their interest sooner or later. peace in kenya guarantees a significant stability in somalia and consequently a controlled Al shabab which has been a major pain in the ass for the west along the Red sea Until kenya came in and saved the day. Europe countries had lost greatly to rival China becoz al Shabab literally cut off their easy access to East african coast and South african coast. and becoz the west prefers financial gain over moral credit. . . . any european country on Un Security Council will not dare offend the Commander in chief of the Armed forces holding it down in somalia. an unstable kenya would force Uhuru to withdraw his forces from somalia which would guarantee a volatile somalia and a comeback of a stronger Al Shabab and return to the same old mayhem along the Red sea gulf. On the other hand.... if the west vote for justice (Deny deferral) theyll get tons of moral credit and zero financial gain, infact, the would most likely suffer economical loss should kenya become unstable. with that in mind europe will support deferral. i bet. 2). Terrorism is a major concern for the international society especially USA and Britain. . . . coincidentally, a major ally (kenya) happens to be a willing partner to fight terrorism not to mention kenyas strategic positioning right at the backyard of Al Shabab home on of the biggest terrorist organisation in the world. And its not all in vain.... kenya has made significant gains against Al Shabab and shares intelligence widely with USA and provide launch pad for USA when they launch attacks on terrorist bases in somalia. No amount of justice or moral credit that can push USA to abandon this front in their fight against terrorism. Not supporting kenya as an ally would mean a war lost here at home and most importantly a war lost by USA and the west becoz that would bolden Al Shabab which would eventually take the war to them in their own countries. again i bet USA and Britain will support deferral. 3). The recent wrangles facing East Africa Community (EAC) can pass any naive person as just happenings.... but there is a lot riding on it than what meets the eyes. To give you a scope: It all started when UhuRuto were elected to presidency on March 4th and the first strategy USA adopted was to Elevate Tanzania over kenya and use it as its main gateway to the East Africa markets hence sidelining kenya. So the reason Obama chose to visit Tanzania on june and pledged tons of funding to Tz govt especially towards infrastructure specifically Darlesalam port and railway. They did all that and more! What they did not anticipate is one genius Uhuru Kenyatta who made out their plans and moved in to neutralize their plans and as we stand now that plan is hanging to dry somewhere in the deserts. Uhuru has boldly secured the royalty of the east Africa countries (Rwanda, Uganda and South sudan) and went ahead to alienate Tanzania rendering the psychotic plan useless and USA nolonger has leverage to pressure kenya. on those basis. . . . USA and the west has no choice but maintain Kenya as their main gateway to the east Africa market. tanzania cant guarantee them that. thats another reason i bet will contribute to support for deferral. 4) Last but not least..... its in the best interest of the west to seem Supportive of the African Nations interests. and this provides a perfect inconsequential opportunity. Dragging Uhuru and Ruto to hague is of zero benefit to the west. But granting AU wishes will impact hugely on the perception that the west is inconsiderate to african leaders opinions. and this chance, this chance is golden considering that they are not risking 3rd world war and it will mean everything to african leaders. again.... Deferral pap! IN SUMMARY. . . WHILE HERE IN KENYA WE THINK JUSTICE COMES FIRST.... THE WEST PRIORITIZE FINANCIAL INTERESTS AND POLITICAL LEVERAGE OVER JUSTICE, PEACE AND MORALITY. WHILE WE LOOT FOR THE LATTER THE WEST WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY GO FOR THE FORMER CONSIDERING THEY ARE THE ONES HOLDING THE CARDS. Its just a matter of hours before my prediction is confirmed..... meanwhile feel free to quote your differing opinions.
Posted on: Fri, 15 Nov 2013 09:07:10 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015