The Way the cookie crumbles. One good news filtering out is that General Mohammadu Buhari will not contest 2015 election. It is now up to APC to put forward its best candidates and chase PDP out of office. The Old PDP will kill itself if it fielded unelectable candidate like Jonathan in the 2015 race. The crucial question is whether INEC will be able to conduct free and fair election going by the outcome of Anambra state election, otherwise I will categorically say Jonathan will lose election even as a lone candidate in Nigerias presidential contest. They said even in a single horse race, there is no 100% guarantee that the horse will make it to the finish line. This aptly describes the position Jonathan boxed himself. If INEC today can conduct free and fair election,there is no way the president can garner enough votes to make him win Presidential election in Nigeria. This has nothing to do with his person,tribe,origin or religion. It has more to do with his performance in office. Nigeria has deteriorated dangerously; socially,politically,educationally and economically under his watch. The way he failed to manage his party, the PDP and watched it fall to pieces was the same way he managed Nigeria and allowed it to drift apart. The President should have himself to blame for such bad turn of events. When he had the last opportunity to meet his party rebel governors and mend fences,he bungled it and complained he could not meet with them because of Jet-lag! This means he learnt nothing from his mentor Obasanjo who visited houses to beg party men to his fold. Now that Jonathan allowed 7 of his governors to dump him for APC, this is how the new merger changed the political landscape of Nigeria. The ruling PDP that had 23 governors now has 16. The new merger party presently has 18 governors; while the remaining two states, Ondo and Anambra, are led by the Labour Party and the All Progressives Grand Alliance respectively. I watched Jonathan with a pang of pity for his naivety and lack of political experience. He learnt nothing and is obviously missing out so much of the moneuvering and political sagacity of Obasanjo,no wonder some of the governors referred him as kindergarten president and I called him bad power apprentice. The reason is this;while he relies on Police,INEC and incumbency to win election,the more politically suave and experienced governors are working round the clock holding meetings day and night to destroy the very platform he hangs his hope to win election,that is the PDP. Without PDP Jonathan has no hope and nowhere to go. Jonathan must know that governors are the most important and powerful people in matters that concern Nigerian elections. When Obasanjo begged Atiku it was not for fear of the vice president per se rather than his ability to control the governors. It was when Obasanjo woke up to the realisation that he lost the governors to Atiku that he came to terms with his very precarious situation. Jonathan can afford to do without one or two governors but there is serious concern where he lost control of over 18 governors some of them leading the most important states in the country. In case the president missed the import of his current reality,he should be reminded that he needs the governors to even rig in their states,not to talk of winning election in fair contest. The worse is yet to happen to Jonathan as more governors from old PDP may eventually dump him for APC while we wait to see how the merger will equally decimate his party and its leadership in the national assembly. Forget the grandstanding,PDP is badly wounded and diminished as things stand today, and if it loses majority in the National Assembly,Jonathan will be in far deeper trouble than he can imagine. In Nigeria all performance indicators are pointing downwards: employment,poverty reduction,electricity generation,infrastructure,education,health,infant/maternal mortality, corruption,security,due process and rule of law are all in very dire state. Government claims of recent achievements in sports has more to do with luck and Nigerian fighting spirit than anything to do with it, otherwise there is no way a coach that had not been paid 7 months salaries could deliver any result .In the past other governments like Shagari,Abacha,Buhari and Obasanjo also had glorious sports outing. In short governments claims for sports achievements will be akin to IBB claiming credit for Soyinkas Nobel laurel! Unless you belong to the like of Reuben Abati,Asari Dakubo, Edwin Clark or fall in tune with PDPs usual grandstanding, there is no way you can miss the fact that Nigeria is not working. Today a new drama is added into the polity with the arrest and detention of Asari Dakubo by the government of Benin Republic. Dakubo has promised war and destruction in the event that Jonathan did not win 2015 election. My fear here is that Asari may be receiving the Orkah treatment for his meddlesomeness in the dirty power politics of Nigeria. We have no details yet and the drama is still developing but the Beninoise may frame him up for some terrorism charges and put him out for some time. If the opposition appears to be telling lies about Nigerias precarious and dangerous situation,listen to world press and other global bodies and the true picture of Nigeria will stare you in the face. At least World Bank,Tranparency International,Doctors without Borders,Unicef,WHO,UN,Amnesty International and IMF are not part of the opposition. Is it not a disaster to hear our little sister Ghana is saying it did not want to be anything like Nigeria? If APC really wanted to chase Jonathan away, my advice is that they should fight him in his own game because Jonathan cashed on sentiment to woe votes. This time Northerners should forget Presidency and push a credible Easterner or South Southerner to slug it out with Jonathan. The military had done it to Yorubas when they cleverly fielded Obasanjo and Falae to contest against each other. Obasanjo had done it when he cleverly allowed Yaradua and Buhari both from Katsina state to contest against each other. The Yorubas for now are not keen on getting the presidency despite the fact that they are the most marginalised in the scheme of things by Jonathans government. I sincerely feel and warn Northern politicians to put their desperation for presidency at bay and push an Amaechi/Kwankwaso ticket, Okorocha/Fashola ticket or woe Adams Oshiomhole/Lamido to contest against Jonathan. This will pull the rug beneath his feet and rob the president the chance to whip regional,religious and tribal sentiment to his advantage. The Yorubas will vote presidential election according to where their interest will be better served and that explained why despite putting up Ribadu for election they refused to vote for him. I assure you Yoruba voters will vote Jonathan if put against a Northern Muslim candidate. This is how bad Northerners had pushed themselves. Nigerian Southerners are not happy with Northern leadership and their handling of Boko Haram where Southerners and Christians where attacked and bombed to death. Igbos if given their own person as candidate or an acceptable South -South candidate, will be too quick to dump Jonathan. The truth is that they also fared worse under Jonathan and his winning election will prolong their quest for leadership of this nation which they so craved, but were unfairly denied. There is no way any Igbo voter will vote a Northerner given the way his folks were unfairly attacked,bombed and mindlessly killed in the North during the post election violence and the worst days of Boko Haram.
Posted on: Wed, 27 Nov 2013 16:50:12 +0000
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