The campaign for Scottish independence was stalling last night, with support for the Union edging into the lead once again. Only six days before Scotland’s referendum, a YouGov poll for The Times found that 52 per cent of voters wanted to remain a part of the UK, excluding “don’t knows” and non-voters, while 48 per cent said that they would choose independence. This is a reversal of a YouGov poll at the weekend, which found 51 per cent in favour of independence and 49 per cent against, triggering market turmoil and a panicked political fightback that led all three main party leaders to race north of the border. The number of undecided voters is dropping sharply. Only 4 per cent now say they have yet to make up their minds, down from 6 per cent at the weekend and 8 per cent at the start of the month. The outcome of next Thursday’s vote remains on a knife edge, but the latest poll suggests that momentum is now with the pro-Union campaign, which has made particularly strong gains among women and young voters. It provides clear evidence that Alex Salmond is losing the economic argument as warnings of instability in an independent Scotland gain traction. Almost half of Scots, 48 per cent, now think that an independent country would be worse off overall, a six-point rise in six days. Similarly 45 per cent think that an independent Scotland would make them personally financially worse off, up eight points from the weekend. These results are a significant challenge for Mr Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, who has mounted a drive to reassure Scots that the economy would not suffer if there were a “yes” vote. This week five big Scotland-based banks, including RBS and TSB, have threatened to move their headquarters south of the border in the event of independence. Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, said that despite criticism that they were too negative, the warnings on the economy appeared to be working. “A key reason for the renewed fears of independence is what might happen to people’s bank accounts. The biggest single advantage cited by ‘no’ voters is that the UK would have the resources to step in if Scotland faced another crisis of the kind that erupted in 2008.” John Lewis, Waitrose and Asda said yesterday that their prices could rise in Scotland if the country voted “yes”. The International Monetary Fund also warned of economic turmoil for Scotland in the event of a “yes” vote. The poll shows that Mr Salmond’s longstanding problem with attracting women voters has resurfaced in the final days of the campaign, with the pro-Union side now enjoying a 16-point lead among female voters. Forty-two per cent of women support independence, down five points since the weekend. This is due to economic insecurity: 49 per cent of women think they personally would be worse off under independence. A majority of men, 54 per cent, will vote for separation. The campaign for independence is now only ahead in one age group, 25 to 39-year-olds, who back Mr Salmond by a margin of 60 per cent to 40 per cent. All other age categories now reject independence, including 16 to 24-year-olds who appear to be narrowly backing the Union. This comes despite Mr Salmond ensuring 16 and 17-year-olds could vote for the first time. It is a significant reversal, with the YouGov poll last weekend showing Mr Salmond ahead in all age groups apart from over-60s. Mr Salmond’s ratings have also taken a hit. Thirty-eight per cent now say they trust the Scottish first minister, down four points since the weekend. Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, is up three points on 35 per cent. Mr Cameron is fractionally more trusted than Mr Miliband among Scots, the poll found. Almost 97 per cent of all eligible Scottish independence referendum voters are now registered, making it the largest electorate in the UK in 30 years. According to figures released by Scotland’s chief counting officer, a total of 4,285,323 of the estimated 4,410,288 people over 16 and resident in Scotland plan to cast their vote next week. An unprecedented 789,024 requests for postal ballots may result in people being left without the vote, it was claimed yesterday.
Posted on: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 01:09:06 +0000
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