The consumer confidence index or CCI is interesting. A lot of it is calculated by the current unemployment numbers and trending which have slowly declined since 2010. However the true unemployment number is in question since the Obama administration excludes the number of drastically fewer people that are in the labor force today compared to 6 years ago. Since unemployment numbers feed the data of the CCI, the graph comparison is interesting. Things that make you go hmmm. The CCI is based on the data from a monthly survey of 5,000 US households. The data is calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the countrys nine census regions. The survey consists of five questions on the following topics: 1. current business conditions, 2. business conditions for the next six months, 3. current employment conditions, 4. employment conditions for the next six months, 5. total family income for the next six months. After all surveys are collected, each questions positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. Its interesting how they gives us numbers put dont show the sample polling criteria. In other words, what demographic are they calling within the 5,000 households? Demographic and political bias can skew accuracy. Most Democrats view the economy as heading in the right direction and most Republicans view it the opposite. Its like election polls that Ive commented on before. If sample polling data is skewed by the pollster who may have sampled more of one party or demographic, the poll is irrelevant. However, it just played a subliminal roll in making people think one way or another. In many cases, pollsters dont display their sample polling data which is quite annoying. Often you must dig for this kind of information.
Posted on: Tue, 05 Aug 2014 15:30:22 +0000