The country’s leaders must and can prevent a slide back to civil war Nov 9th 2013 | MAPUTO Dhlakama back in the bush SINCE Mozambique emerged from civil war two decades ago, it has made enormous strides. Though still poor, its income per head has tripled. It has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. It is a darling of aid donors. And its coal and offshore gas reserves have lured pots of foreign investment. So when Renamo, a group led by former guerrillas-turned-politicians who signed a peace accord in 1992, declared on October 21st that “peace is over”, alarm bells jangled. A spate of kidnappings has added to anxieties about security. Rio Tinto, a London-based mining firm, said on November 1st that it was pulling out its expatriate workers’ families. Trouble has been brewing for at least a year. In December parliament passed a law that gave Frelimo, the party that since 1975 has ruled Mozambique, five of the eight seats reserved for political parties on a new electoral commission. Renamo’s leaders are still sore at its narrow election defeat in 1999, which they put down to fraud. They wanted parity with Frelimo in the commission but their party was given just two seats. In protest Renamo said it would not contest local elections due on November 20th. And it asked for talks with Frelimo that have since come to nothing. Afonso Dhlakama, Renamo’s veteran leader, had already returned to his rebel base in Satunjira, in the forested Gorongosa hills of central Mozambique. Events took a violent turn in April when its militia attacked a police position, killing four policemen. Renamo said it was in response to an army raid on the Satunjira camp. Then in June Renamo threatened to paralyse the railway line from neighbouring Zimbabwe to the port of Beira and to disrupt traffic on the main north-south road. Two people were killed in ambushes shortly after. Transport now has to be protected by military escorts. Mr Dhlakama fled after further clashes around Satunjira on October 17th-21st. Despite the violence, Renamo has garnered quite a bit of public sympathy. There is support for its demands for electoral reform, an end to Frelimo’s sway over the security forces, the depoliticisation of the civil service and a dividend for all Mozambicans from the country’s burgeoning new wealth from coal and gas. Thousands attended a rare march in Maputo, the capital, on October 31st. Demands for greater security were prompted by more than just fear. People want to travel without delays or hassle. The main north-south road is a vital supply line for Maputo’s small traders. Lorries that carry supplies north to the mining region would return empty but for the bricks, bamboo or sacks of peanuts which some drivers can be induced to bring back. Economics has a more general influence on growing tensions. The prospect of a resource boom has sharpened elbows. It now matters more than before who is in a position to dole out building contracts, who gets shares in the new ports and railways, and who wins security bids. In September investors snapped up a bond worth $850m issued by a new state-backed tuna-fishing venture. The IMF has since called for “possible non-commercial activities” linked to the venture to be spelled out. This fishy affair shows how much cash is sloshing around Mozambique. Is Renamo’s gripe actually just about its share of wealth? “Yes, we want money, but only in a transparent way,” says Fernando Mazanga, the party’s spokesman. Mr Mazanga also insists that Renamo did not junk the peace deal in October; rather it was Frelimo that did so, he says, when it attacked Mr Dhlakama. For his part, Mozambique’s president, Armando Guebuza, has insisted that his country is not going back to civil war. Renamo probably lacks the muscle for that, but it could still carry out acts of sabotage. Can a deal be struck? A snag is that Frelimo must find someone to replace Mr Guebuza before next October’s elections. He may not wish to bargain with Renamo if it plays so badly within Frelimo that he loses sway over the choice of his successor. Meanwhile Mr Dhlakama is hiding where he may not be able to control his troops.
Posted on: Fri, 08 Nov 2013 10:27:03 +0000
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