The current feeding-bottle federalism will never develop The North and as the price of oil heads towards 80$/bbl and below, the Nigerian state will have increasing problems in its attempt to maintain the current welfare system of its regions and the peace of the nation. One of the more popular Short Games being played is for the Northern Muslim Political Elite (The Core North) to recover Federal Power. As with all Short Games, this is most-probably a mistake. Should it happen, I believe, you will simply see the expansion of the Islamic Insurgency to other Northern States, especially the North-West, as the impotence of the Federal Government as a mechanism for development becomes increasingly evident to the popular North. If oil is at 60$/Barrel things will be very hard in Nigeria. The current Long Game in the Muslim North is the Mosque vs. State battle fuelled by the rejection of modern education. The religion of the regions politics has been overtaken by the politics of the regions religion. The Socialism once proposed by progressives has been strangled by a more muscular Sharia now promoted by Jihadists. Like the Shah, overthrown by the Ayatollahs, one should not discount a similar fate in Northern Nigeria when development is not forthcoming - a wide-spread regicide to replacing the current crop of Emirs & Shehus with puppets or Religious Councils. This purer Sharia may well be at the pleasure of clerics supported by tourist Jihadis bored with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. With Nigeria, one can see why they are referred to as the PAINS. Under the current configuration, Northern Nigeria will not develop. It simply cant. This is irrespective of the religion of the Nigerian President. Policy counts and Nigeria has run out of time and ideas.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 14:15:51 +0000
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