The demonstrations in Egypt: an uprising or a revolution? Unfortunately Egypt is going down the drain and there is a possibility for enormous disaster in days and weeks to come. I predicted this from day one because it was difficult to see exist and resolution strategies by the military. And for me it seems that the Egyptian military lack vision and strategy, they only relied on the use of force. I have written about the ongoing impasse/gridlock in Egypt which is on my FB wall. My inquisitiveness about this issue is not because of Egypt or Egyptians but because of series of implications for similar uprising or revolution in Nigeria. Some Egyptian will now tell you that they prefer Mubarak than uncertainty and polarisation which have no end in sight. Is good we examine what went wrong in Egypt and learn from it a nation. The international dimension in this crisis is overwhelming from the beginning of democratic dispensation in Egypt. Let us look at the actions of the so-called vanguard of democratic values throughout the world - the UN, USA and their European friends. What is their record on democracy and many of the values they pretend to uphold? What is the right of Romans in Europe and why is the Europeans silent about it? The Romans are suffering as in most developing countries. Look at the authoritarian regimes in the Arab states of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirate), why are they friends with the champions of democracy? What of the right of black people in America? How partial is UN when it comes to dealing with some countries? Even the international ‘police’ for International Criminal Court (ICC), the USA is not a signatory to the court charter. Almost all the people that are tried in this court (ICC) are Africans, why? What of those who committed war crime in Iraq and elsewhere, why are they not transferred to Hague (ICC)? My point is that Americans and Europeans are not interested in democracy rather they are interested in protecting and defending their interest. As far as Egypt is concern they are not really concern about them but about the State of Israel and the flow of oil through the Nile. Another international dimension that was against former President Morsi was conspiracy in highest order from his Arab neighbours. They supported the coup with the USA financially and with overwhelming assurance from key players in the world and in the region. Morsi was unable to get IMF, World Bank and European Union loans; and his Arab neighbours did not come to his rescue either. Immediately after he was overthrown these countries in succession made billion of dollars in grants and loans to illegitimate government. Another reason why the Arab states of the Persian Gulf that are ruled by absolute monarchy are against Morsi was that a successful Islamic government will undermine their regime as people of their countries might want an alternative system of government. The issue around ‘deep state’ is another factor as echoed by many analysts. The institutions that held the state together was against deposed President Morsi. All these institutions have allegiance to Mubarak regime: the police, judiciary, key players in the private sector, media that is partial, the military, etc. The youths most of those that are unemployed and desperate for a better future are inexperience and was used by Mubarak allies. I am sure most of them will not realise this on time because of propaganda machine in the media outlets owned by these powerful Mubarak elites. But the largest Islamic party is no more or partially not in the alliance that toppled Morsi because they now realise that they are been used by the remnants of the old regime. I am sure without any doubt that most of the youth leaders and intelligent people among them must have realised by now that they are been used. As I have said in the previous piece, Morsi regime committed a series of mistakes; even the Justice and freedom party which the Brotherhood belongs have acknowledged that mistakes were made. The one that is against the democratic principle is making himself a new ‘pharaoh’ of Egypt by given himself absolute power. Although without absolute power most of the things will not be done due to the influence of ‘deep state’ players. It was also true that Morsi promised meaningful changes in 3 months without taken into the consideration some of the factors that was against him. Barak Obama couldn’t fulfil half of promises he made in his first term and re-elected based on finishing the job. The Liberal party in the UK which is part of the coalition government promised to abolish tuition fee in the universities in England if they are part of the government but the tuition was increased from £3000 for local students to £9000. You don’t change government through the military based on promise not fulfilled. The military should have forced a referendum on Morsi government to ascertain its legitimacy. About if the process of recall was not in their constitution due to brotherhood manipulation or omission in the new constitution? Well if the military has power to overthrow him they should have power to force referendum on him. At minimum, impeachment will be in the constitution but the composition of the parliament will make it impossible to impeach him. His party had 235 seats, Al-Nour Islamic bloc party had 123, new Wafd 38 and Egyptian Bloc 35 seats. The point here is that all the players mentioned in the piece from UN, USA, European countries, Israel, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf and the parties that constitute ‘deep state’ are all focusing on one thing which is their INTEREST. When their interest aligned they are partners if not they are enemies. We know what happen in Algeria when the Islamist won the election there man years ago and how USAID a development and humanitarian agency of USA government was used in Pakistan. Creating doubts about their mission and objectives in most of the countries they are operating. The society in Egypt is highly polarised where there is a little room to manoeuvre due to lack of political consensus. The whole process was mismanaged by the military and their allies that toppled a democratic elected government. Imagine, ten of the ministers now are from old regime, those from Mubarak regime that are imprisoned after the first ‘revolution’ are now freed and those that are democratically elected are now imprisoned. Imagine, nine of the ministers now are those that cannot win elections in ballot but rode to power through the back of military tanks. Where is justice in all that! The credential of USA, European countries and UN as promoters of democracy is now in teeters. It is only democracy when it suits their interest and that is why neither the Western world nor the institutions they are supporting are condemning the coup up to date. I must commend African Union for condemning the coup outrightly. Democracy is a game of number, number of those who went to cast their votes not number of heads on the street on protest. We are taught that if a government is dysfunction you either recall it or wait until next election to change it. What happens in Egypt is a gross violation of democratic principle and all the democrats in the world should condemn it. To the true democrats in Egypt, the people will always prevail no matter what, even if they are fighting F16, tanks and guns. The question now arises in determining what happened in ousting Mubark from government, is it just an uprising or a revolution. I will think it was an uprising because only the ‘head’ (Mubarak) was removed but the ‘body’ (deep state) remains intact. More lives will be lost in Egypt no doubt and the only solution is for both camps to come to negotiation table. The divides is too deep and I am not seen that very soon. But there is no way out of the quagmire except concession and trade-offs. What is most important to us is our nation NIGERIA and the lessons we can learn from the experience in Egypt because most of the factors in Egypt are also present in Nigeria. There are four alternatives to effect changes in Nigeria either; • we try to perfect our democracy and get rid of corrupt politicians and learn as we progresses • uprising - where we only remove the ‘head’ and go through the route of Egypt destabilisation due to ‘deep state’ factors and foreign influences • revolution that will not only remove the ‘head’ but also the ‘body’ which might create more confusions than solutions • honest military regime that will build our institutions, instil in us discipline and the love of our nation. I must add that there are few officers that are discipline themselves making it a hard nut to crack.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Jul 2013 14:35:50 +0000
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