The economy died.....Barry lied ******************************************************* Has the next housing crash started already? ************************************************************ (from lemetropolecafe) . Interestingly, I received more boots on the ground observations from around the country. Recall that I’ve suggested that the upper end of the housing market is becoming flooded with homes and that the effect would be a top-down compression of prices and volume. A reader posted this comment last night: Another geographical example of what you are explaining [regarding the upper end of the market]. In the Northern suburbs of Chicago, a realtor friend of my wife has been selling homes in the area for a long time. She told us this past weekend that something is going on. She sells $1mm+ homes and said that her listings since July 2014 have not even been getting foot traffic. The perspective buyers that do come for showings want to know if the sellers will come down as much as 20-30%! I guess we are beginning to see that even the so called wealthy are holding their money a lot tighter now. Heh heh heh…what’s funny about that is that by the time the sellers drop their price 20-30%, the prospective buyers will have disappeared because they’ll sense that all the sellers are dropping their trousers. The real estate market in the modern fiat currency, debt-fueled system tends to operated on momentum. The price/volume forces are driven to extremes in either direction. We are about to see the completely artificial intervention momentum of the last three years rip in reverse. You heard it here first. A colleague of mine who has a second home in Scottsdale, AZ sent me an e-mailing he got from a very high end real estate/golf club development down there. The home sales whore broker is Berkshire Hathaway Home Services – you get the idea. The e-mailing had three homes, all between $1.1 and $4 million. ALL OF THEM had been dropped in price 10-15%. My colleagues comment was price reductions right at the beginning of busy season – hmmm. You see, this is the kind of data that Larry Yun and all the Wall Street housing market pimps don’t look at and evaluate. They purposely ignore it. It’s easier to manufacture snake-oil to sell when you don’t know the truth. One last comment. A reader sent me this email this morning: I purchased your report on XXX back in October and have short positions with put options as you suggested. So far I’m a quite a bit up and wanted to ask you about something you’ve mentioned in a few of the blog posts over the past several months. For example, you mentioned in the 11/21/14 post to take some profits when the markets nosedive. I’m thinking that the recent performance of XXX qualifies as such. Do you have any thoughts on a possible bounce back up for XXX in the coming months? My response was to immediately book his profits on the options and purchase one of my two most recent homebuilder reports and roll some of his profits into shorting one of those companies’ stocks (or both, for that matter). Both of those stocks have a lot further to fall than XXX and they are more directly by both the upper end collapsing and the carnage in the oil market. investmentresearchdynamics/more-boots-on-the-ground-data-and-a-modest-proposal/
Posted on: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 04:19:38 +0000
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