The fall of Roxas and Binay and the surge of Poe By; Carmelo Redencion T. de Leoz, Jr. The public relations campaign for and against Roxas and Binay are working against each other. Binay, despite of another survey showing he has reached rock bottom in his ratings, should be alarmed for this was negated by the newest Pulse Asia survey which shows him declining by 5% based on preference rate. On the other hand, instead of improving, Roxas lost 7% in his preference rate as compared to the September survey. On the other hand, Grace Poe is the biggest gainer at 8% increase from her previous 10% preference rate in September. Binay’s camp will always claim that they expect such 5% dip which is minimal or negligible, to say the least, despite the many accusations leveled against him. Roxas’, camp on the other hand, are surprised by the results and are still in awe how it happened. To some of his supporters, they thought Pulse Asia was bought to make it appear that Roxas suffered a considerable decline to balance that of Binay. However, there are countless reasons why Roxas rating declined considerably. For one, the accusation of Binay’s camp that Roxas has a hand in the campaign against Binay must have been imbibed in the minds of the people with the ownership of the helicopter used in the surveillance of Hacienda Binay traced to one of Roxas’ supporters. This may have made some to be turned-off from Roxas for they can not tolerate dirty tricks. Even then, how did Roxas lose 7% and Poe gain 8%? The answer is very simple - people are now becoming issue oriented and are making their choice not only based on personality. During the survey period, Poe has just given her privilege speech on hunger mitigation thereby earning her the admiration and support of those coming from class D and E. She likewise spearheaded the senate hearing on corruption issues against PNP Chief Allan Purisima. Poe’s demeanor in handling the hearing made even Class ABC rethink their perception of her from being a neophyte to someone who has the skills and character to become the president. Therefore, the fall of Binay and the surge of Poe’s rating in the recent survey of presidential preference, shows that in addition to corruption, food on the table is a possible major issue in the 2016 elections. If indeed corruption is a major issue, despite being untainted, how come Roxas suffered a considerable loss? The investigation of PNP Chief Purisima lead by no less than Poe worked greatly against Roxas. The people believes Poe’s pronouncement that Purisima is lying to his teeth. Since the PNP is under Roxas, the people will naturally conclude that he is protecting Purisima despite the evidence presented not only in the media but as well as in the senate. For the people, if Binay is guilty of accumulating wealth, Roxas is also guilty by virtue of association, since Purisima is his guy who has acquired questionable properties also. Maybe people are thinking that Purisima is to Roxas while Mercado is to Binay. On the other hand, Binay has more reasons to be worried since his decline is 50% of his previous decline which could be considered as very relevant. Since his decline of 5% it is not within the margin of error of 3%, his people or statisticians alike cannot claim that it is negligible to make his current rating statistically equal to his previous rating. Ergo, it could be said that Binay suffered a real decline and not a negligible one which could be a danger signal for him because this simply means that he has not yet reached the so called rock bottom. Binay is damaged goods, only a miracle and his spin doctors could help him recover, if in the next survey he will suffer another decline, then he should start rethinking his options. However, if he should recover, then 26% is his rock bottom or his command votes which will make his would be opponents rethink their options. Roxas decline can be attributed to people surrounding him, such as his wife, his people and his cordon sanitaire and issues surrounding his office – should he decide to take a definite stand against Purisima and make her wife be involve in hunger mitigation, maybe he will recover more so that Poe had already declared that despite the survey she is not inclined to pursue the presidency. Roxas and Binay are the two perceived rivals, however should Poe, Santiago or any other achieved a preference rating of more than 25% in succeeding surveys, then these two leading contenders will have a run for their money. Even if Poe is not inclined to run, if the clamor is indeed enormous, then she can do nothing but to accede.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Dec 2014 13:30:53 +0000
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