The lake-effect snow machine is still piling the snow on in the snow-belt regions. Squall Watches (yellow) and Warnings (red) have been issued/continued by Environment Canada (first map). Squalls will continue well into the week for these hard-hit areas from low pressure systems Sunday night and on Wednesday. The Bruce Peninsula can expect up to 25cm more today and overnight with another 10cm+ tomorrow afternoon. A low pressure system is going to track east of us overnight (2nd picture), placing us in the snowfall area. Most of Ontario can expect 3-5cm from this, but areas along Lake Erie (St. Thomas, Niagara) can expect up to 10 cm (3rd, 4th, 5th images). The models are locked in and in agreement on where the heaviest bands will line up, mostly on the USA side of the border, but a small 50km bump to the NW, which is possible, could increase snowfall amounts by a few cm (...and a quick look at the latest model runs before I post this shows a slight NW bump). Strong gusty WNW winds of up to 60km behind this will drive more squalls and lower the wind-chill. Dress warmly, have an emergency kit in your vehicle, and take your time in your commute. This is the first wide-spread snowfall of the season, and I expect that well see people driving like its still Summer. Another light snow-maker will pass through the region on Wednesday adding a few more CM of Winter joy, and further squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay in behind it. The 6th image shows total predicted snowfall from today through to Thursday. For fun, the 7th image shows total predicted snowfall from today through Nov 25. The remnants of hurricane Nuri are still showing up in the long-range models as a strong winter storm in the 23rd-26th time period. Where the rain/snow boundary lines up cant be determined this far out. As always take any forecast that far out with a grain or two of salt as the uncertainties are just too great. At the moment, its looking possible that well see a 4 day stretch of above zero temperatures from the 22nd to 25th, though still in the single digits. Overnight lows will likely be below zero on the 22nd and 25th, when the rain that well likely see during the day will turn to snow as cold air comes flooding back in to the region (assuming what the models are showing comes to fruition). Lastly, some areas are seeing moderate snow this morning, particularly the Toronto lake-shore (last image). If youre out and about, be aware of whats going on around you on the roads, and adjust your driving to the road conditions.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Nov 2014 14:48:54 +0000
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