The main objective of Luhya unity is to aid Uhuru to remain in Control of power at the expense of those who are currently in opposition.The truth is even if Luhyas unite they must form an alliance with other tribes in order one of them to ascend to power.Therefore the proponents of Luhya unity have only two option i.e to either to negotiate with Jubilee or Cord.What the proponents of Luhya unity are not telling people of Murembe is that even if they negotiate with Jubilee the chances of a Luhya becoming the flag bearer do not exist.For example the number of the registered Luhya voters do not even exceed 2.6m.While registered voters supporting Uhuru are over 3.5 m and those supporting Ruto are over 3m Countrywide. Therefore theres no way Uhuru as a sitting president and Ruto as the Deputy president can step down for a Luhya Candidate in 2017.Second there is no guarantee that all Luhyas will vote for one Candidate.This is because out of the 2.6m Luhya registered voters Vihiga County has 222,456 voters,Busia County has 241,737,Bungoma County has 681,981 voters, and Kakamega 838,813 voters.Trans Nzoia which is cosmopolitan has 331,352 with Bukusu being the majority.While the balance is spread out in major towns.Three,if we are playing tribal politics at the National level then we cannot rule out sub tribal politics at the regional level and in this case Wetangula has an advantage over Mudavadi and Ababu.This is because Mudavadi does not control the whole of Vihiga and in Kakamega he has to contend with Khalwale and Oparanya.In Busia Ababu will have to fight it out with Sospeter Ojaamong and Paul Otuoma.The matter for Ababu is more complicated as he is partless.The question is, is Ababu capable of forming his own party without the assistance of Jubilee and if he does which impact will it have on the electorate?.This means that for any Luhya to ascend to power must first have the national appeal and then join a popular coalition before going back to his Luhya tribe.That is what Wetangula and Khalwale are doing and what Ababu did not realise.Mudavadi just assumes he will be the sole beneficiary of Luhya unity just because he contested in 2013.The Facebook sycophants who turn out to be Mudavadi supporters cannot propel Ababu to power.Both Uhurus and Rutos supporters cannot abandon them for Ababu.Mudavadi cannot therefore step down for Ababu and Wetangula cannot step down for Mudavadi and Ababu.The only option for Ababu is, he either supports Mudavadi or Jubilee.Therefore this noise you are hearing is just from political brokers who are just working for Jubilee.Only Wetangula with proper mobilization stand a chance.Watch this space.
Posted on: Tue, 26 Aug 2014 06:03:22 +0000