The move to Cuba, mere necessity to US national security. THE BEST ANALYSIS THAT I HAVE READ, translated using google HAVANA growing collapse of the Cuban dictatorship is related to the unstoppable collapse of Chavismo ( the so call political movement started by Chavez) in Venezuela diariolasamericas/4847_cuba/2863634_la-movida-con-cuba-mera-necesidad-de-seguridad-nacional-para-eeuu.html ANALYSIS | January 3, 2015 HAVANA DARSI FERRET / CUBAN JOURNALIST The victory that saddled the Castro in the surprise announcement of rapprochement and normalization of relations with the US is completely false, a bluff. Both opposed the dictatorship of Havana, they consider a betrayal the new policy from the White House, as the allies of the communist regime, agree to a reading course and outcome to current events very different reality. As stated in one of the playgrounds: ... they are cold, cold, cold. ( means you are not close to the reality ) The facts show clear sight, its just a matter of removing the emotional and passionate reactions to reach the goal of this sensitive issue analysis. The huge draft of the measures taken (restoration of diplomatic relations and push for the lifting of economic and financial sanctions, beyond the exchange of prisoners) shows that Raul Castro came desperate to jump into the arms of the Americans as last letter of salvation for him and his ( Revolution ) . And the US is the only opportunity to enter Cuba with political delegations as guarantors of a process of gradual and controlled regime disassemble, since otherwise get on that boat would have had to do it a little later with aircraft, ships and marines, bound by the danger that their future would crash Castro with consequent instability and power vacuum. This scenario of growing threat of collapse of the Cuban dictatorship is related to the unstoppable collapse of Chavismo in Venezuela. The incompetence of Nicolás Maduro attached to the infeasibility of statist ( State running all) system he inherited no warranties of holding power for much longer. The sudden drop in oil prices in the international market came to become the coup de grace to the regime. Along with the speedy collapse of Mature juicy allowance ( to Cuba) (13,000 million annually) of which have survived the Castro since 1998 evaporates. ( and $85 000 million dollars as a present given by Chavez to Castro in all this years that went to the sea , you havent seen anything tangible ) As the Cuban economy produces neither is able to feed themselves, the fall of Chavismo and disappearance of the subsidy, Raúl Castro will leave their main source of economic support and unable to find another substitute benefactor arrives with a wallet full of money and retaining arrangement as manganzones ( not working guys begging all the time ) follow them. Such circumstances only allow space to further deterioration of the tense internal situation in Cuba, which inevitably push a social explosion. ( China and Russia closed the doors to Cuba, they said good we help you, but you pay, this is business) Getting to grips with social unrest not only scares the Castro and his close entourage, also USA is terrified, because they would have to take issue directly to assume its dire consequences. Loss of control of power means for Castro danger of risking life, liberty and wealth usurped during the half century of dictatorship. On the other hand, the island could work towards a phase of instability that would lead to massive and uncontrolled exodus to the US. And even worse for the White House, instability in Cuba would make it too attractive to drug trafficking and international terrorism, which groups try to establish shelter and operational base on the island to be located a few miles from US territory. ( See Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc ) So what are we talking about? All this rapprochement between Obama and Castro is nothing but a surrender of Castro. Raul Castro has gone desperate to seek the economic underpinnings of the US to avoid the crash, and has committed no possibility of another future to remove the regime in a gradual and controlled process, negotiating with the White House to reach the end with alternative guarantee amnesty for him, his family and the dome of his dictatorship. Americans are forced by circumstances to prioritize its geostrategic interests of national security. Your problem with Cuba is summarized obtain the guarantee of stability in the island. Have been launched to seize the diplomatic route leading to the dismantling of the regime and the threat it represents. And in case you fail this road of no return, are left hand military solution is for them but unwanted invasion occupation must maintain stability in the country. Clarify that neither side a rebirth of goodwill has occurred, much less an awakening of love or concern for the fate and freedom of the Cuban people. Americans simply do not want to have to add another event expensive operation and boots of their soldiers in another country in the region in the style of Granada (1983), Panama (1989) and Haiti (2004). In the XXI century and given the events, entangled in an invasion of Cuba would be them incalculable political consequences. And in the case of Castro, are willing to everything except the possibility that hang their pictures on the same wall where portraits of Nicolae Ceaucescu, Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein or Manuel A. Noriega found. Obama wants stability in the island. Raul amnesty. And to achieve both objectives are urged to stay in control of the scene while the negotiating process of gradual and orderly clearing system operates. The other great reading rapprochement between Obama and Castro is that the opposition was off the table and was not even consulted. The greatest responsibility is the opposition itself to be divided, faced and without showing political maturity and strategic direction. This unfortunate reality that leaves in a better position to dictatorship in the middle of negotiations with the US, can be harnessed and made to serve as a stimulus to overcome the obstacles and achieve the necessary first unit. The leaders of the various opposition groups have a responsibility to create a grand coalition, based on a minimum agenda of coincidence. The weight of that voice will be impossible to ignore it. The unfortunate thing for the opposition is that if it is not mounted on this train already started and moves along the rails, just continue on the platform outside any role in the historic moment in the nation. For the Cuban people the good news is that in one way or another, or guided by one or the other actors, soon becoming the indispensable freedom. The sunrise is closer than ever....
Posted on: Tue, 06 Jan 2015 03:50:34 +0000
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