The new normal. Today we had 2 major announcements that seem to have gone unnoticed. AXIS announced a merger with Partner Re. And troubled Universal Electric was purchased by BAC. You will know that we are expecting also to close within the first half of 2015, the merger of XL and Catlin. And Renaissance Res acquisition of Platinum Re. And with these acquisitions, we effectively have 4, yes 4 dominant insurance companies disappearing from our landscape. And with these mergers, we lose close to 500 jobs I would expect - persons at the higher end, earning 100K plus, and contributing nicely into our governments coffers. And keeping our health insurance rates lower. And then, if we consider local companies, we lost Island Living Center 10-12 jobs, HWP, 15 jobs and of course, The Flying Chef to name those already publicly noted. And I expect we will have another 2-3 high profile closures before the half year is up. Not a pretty picture. Probably about 500 jobs lost by the time its all said and done. The govt indicated that the 2015/2016 deficit will be about $200M, better than the $275M deficit in 2014/2015. This was an estimate before these most recent mergers / job losses... The deficit could trend back towards $300M and potentially top $2.50B Added to this fact, we have a US economy on steroids, where now in an attempt to slow its growth and control inflation, is contemplating raising rates. Expected soon. Those intending to develop in Bermuda will have real cause to think and re-think a development decision using borrowed money. Those holding stock market gains will re-think travel as well as the environment slows.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 22:00:53 +0000
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