The open letter of the four Azerbaijani opinion-formers looks more like vox dei rather than vox populi but whatever it is it reflects a view within Azerbaijani ruling circles that has become more acute over the last days as the Azerbaijani leadership deals with criticism of the way it handled the 9 October Presidential election. The message to Europe and the west in general is clear Shut up or you will lose us. The major shift in Azerbaijani foreign policy that the four opinion-formers are making in their open letter to President Aliev is unlikely to happen, certainly not in the immediate future, although some unfriendly gesture by Baku towards Europe can be expected. A major change will not happen for three reasons: First, the present foreign policy is closely linked with Bakus energy policy and despite the occasional glitch this has worked well for Azerbaijan. A major shift in both will take time to implement and is highly risky. Second, A balanced foreign policy cannot work if there is a sharp swerve in one direction Third, There are few alternatives for Baku but to pursue its present policies, despite all the posturing. Azerbaijan,and more importantly Azerbaijanis, are not ready for the hug of the bear. The events of recent days in Moscow have reminded Azerbaijanis of many memories, if ever they needed to be reminded. The letter of the four Azerbaijani opinion-formers is unlikely to cause crisis meetings in Brussels over the weekend. But it does reflect a certain view in Baku that needs considering. The EU and the US now need to consider how they are going to engage with the administration of President Aliev in its third term, a re-engagement that needs to be done without compromising principles and values. In the end these relations are of mutual interest, and so both sides are going to have to make the effort. Much will depend on how President Aliev sets out to implement his program for the third term over the next weeks and months. Further crackdowns by Baku on dissent may prove to be the straw that breaks the camels back. On the other hand tangible reforms, including long overdue political and constitutional reforms may help both sides turn the page.
Posted on: Sat, 19 Oct 2013 10:51:28 +0000
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