The possibility of a ‘Brexit’ government coming to power in May 2015 is causing once again, a constitutional headache for the United Kingdom. Recent polls for the 2015 general election have continued the possibility of a Tory-UKIP coalition allowing for the Conservatives to for fill their promise of an ‘in/out’ referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. This has led to incoming First Minister Nicola Sturgeon calling for the amendment of any future EU referendum bill to ensure a ‘national veto’ clause between the so-called family of nations, whereby any nation within the UK can veto any exit should their residents vote against it. Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood echoed Nicola Sturgeon’s call for such a veto. Speaking at Welsh First Ministers Question on Tuesday, she put forward the possible scenario that any future referendum could potentially “drag Wales out of the EU”. Responding, Welsh FM Carwyn Jones said that the proposals were “worth considering”. Despite the fact that the Welsh government’s position the on the proposal is admittedly far from solid, FM Jones’ words do show an acknowledgement that England clearly has the overwhelming balance of power in any UK-wide referendum. Whilst optimistically dismissive of the prospect of a future Tory government, FM Jones argued that such a result in any future vote would cause a “Constitutional crisis, the likes of which we haven’t seen”. FM Jones added that such a situation would almost certainly thrust Scotland towards a second referendum on independence. These proposals have come into further limelight with recent YouGov poll analysis showing that Scottish opinion of EU membership is at polar opposites with that of the rest of the UK. The poll, an aggregation of three earlier polls, (excluding ‘don’t knows’) shows that in Scotland over 61% of people would vote to stay in the EU, whilst support in the rUK is much lower, at only 46%. These figures, if repeated in any future referendum certainly do point toward the kind of crisis described by Mr Jones and Ms Sturgeon and the responsibility of overcoming this threat must be that of Westminster. As stated by SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, it is clear that Ms Sturgeon’s proposals are “the most reasonable approach to take on this issue”. A move toward these proposals would go some way to proving that Westminster did truly listen and acknowledge the game-changing nature of the independence referendum result. Sadly, it is probably fair to assume, that any such plan would be dismissed by Westminster as ‘undemocratic’, but for what good reason would Mr Cameron have to reject Ms Sturgeon’s proposals? Scotland voting in clear support for the European Union membership and still being forced out, is surely as undemocratic. This is where the problems within the current UK structure are most apparent. How can such varied political will be justly represented within this rigid and unbalanced political structure? As is the extremely technical and expansive nature of the European Union, there are very few options for Westminster to consider in the event of a ‘Out’ result in any potential referendum. The only other supposed solution, England leaving the EU and Scotland staying (of course, whilst remaining one sovereign UK) is ridiculous and obviously unworkable. This is clearly the first in many debates to be had surrounding the awkward constitutional nature of the UK and its relationship with the EU. Westminster sold the Union to the people of Scotland, and it is becoming more of a headache that ever before, quite simply and perfectly put by Ms McKelvie “the Westminster parties should back this proposal if they are serious about living up to their referendum rhetoric”. Tom Johnstone
Posted on: Sun, 09 Nov 2014 12:14:19 +0000
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