The result of such adjustments is that the IPCC’s worst-case emissions scenario produces a global average temperature rise (from the 1986-2005 average) by the end of the century that has a centralized value of about 2.6°C, compared with a rise of 4.1°C given in the IPCC AR5. The more moderate emissions scenarios (the more likely course as the natural gas revolution will see lower carbon dioxide-emitting natural gas replace higher-emitting coal in energy production), once properly adjusted, produce a temperature rise by century’s end of only about 1.25°C (of which, about 0.15°C has already happened). Since virtually all climate impacts are related to the change in the earth’s temperature, the smaller the future temperature increase, the smaller the resulting impacts. Another degree of so of temperature rise during the next 87 years is not going to lead to climate catastrophe. Had the IPCC been more interested in reflecting the actual science rather than in preserving a quickly crumbling consensus (that human greenhouse gas emissions are leading to dangerous climate change that requires urgent action), its Fifth Assessment Report would have been a much kindler and gentler document—as it well should have been.
Posted on: Thu, 24 Oct 2013 02:19:58 +0000
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