The scene in the Kremlins opulent St. Georges Hall on Tuesday could have come straight from a Soviet TV newsreel of the Party Secretary General raging about machinations of the evil West. As Russian President Vladimir Putin went through his list of slights and grievances, which Russia has ostensibly suffered at the hands of America and its European allies, his speech was interrupted by raucous applause of the smiling and enthusiastic audience, mostly comprised of government officials, loyal civil servants and religious figures. The pep rally reached its crescendo when he announced his government had agreed to honour the will of the Crimean voters in the March 16 referendum and allow the peninsula to join its historic motherland. An imminent war? Shortly afterwards, news broke that a Ukrainian soldier in Crimea was killed and the Admiral of Ukraines Navy stationed on the peninsula was reportedly detained and being interrogated. Meanwhie, Russian troops continue massing near Ukraines eastern borders, prompting Ukraines government to announce that it was putting its army on high alert, to protect its borders from a potential invasion by its big neighbour. Do these ominous developments portend an imminent war? If by war we mean a full-blown armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, then the answer is probably no: The political (not to mention economic) cost to Putin of waging war on a brotherly Slavic people would be too high and the risk of across-the-board sanctions crippling for Russias economy. If our definition of war includes a civil armed conflict between Ukraines central government and its Eastern (predominantly Russian-speaking) areas, with Russias operatives continuing to foment unrest in the latter, then it is a possibility, unless the interim government in Kiev acts quickly and decisively to diffuse the tension in the East. To do that, it must start by granting the Russian-speaking areas an autonomy as part of a would-be federalisation scheme, restoring the Russian languages official status, and ruling out joining NATO. In the address to the countrys citizens in the Eastern areas, which acting Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenuk delivered yesterday in Russian, he signaled his government’s full readiness to make the necessary concessions to prevent Ukraine’s geographical disintegration. As he made it clear early on in his reign, Vladimir Putin considers the break-up of the Soviet Union and the resulting demise of the bipolar world as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. He has been aggrieved with the expansion of NATO to the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, despite the informal promise to the contrary, which George Bush was said to have given to Mikhail Gorbachev after the fall of the Iron Curtain. It is precisely the threat of Georgias inclusion into NATO that sent Russian troops in 2008 to liberate Georgias restive republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and force the alliance to swear off extending membership to Georgia. Having suffered no serious consequences for that aggression, the Kremlin felt emboldened to finally make a stand in Ukraine (which Putin has publicly dismissed as an artificial country) during the protests on Kievs Maidan. It had been Moscows poor judgement to throw its lot with the disgraced former President Victor Yanukovich, whose rapaciousness in looting Ukraines state coffers was unprecedented even by Ukraines notoriously low standards. The Kremlin pulled out all stops in its propaganda efforts to paint the protest movement in Maidan as a Western/neo- fascist plot rather than an expression of Ukrainians outrage at the governments corruption and a yearning for a European orientation. It then found itself in the uncomfortable position of defending the universally despised Yanukovich as a legitimately elected leader of Ukraine who, it has argued, must be allowed to return and resume his duties. A desperate act? Snatching Crimea so quickly - though it may seem like a desperate act, has nonetheless served several important functions for Putin. Internally, it has allowed him to restore his citizenrys flagging morale and rouse nationalist fervour by not accepting the outcome of Maidan lying down and reclaiming one of Russias historical lands (it was transferred to Ukraine by the Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev in 1954).It has also consolidated, at least for now, Russias political and business elites. As the Russian President stated unequivocally in his address on Tuesday, those Russians who dare express disagreement with his Crimean reclamation project would be considered traitors (such as the tens of thousands of Muscovites who came out on March 15 to protest Crimeas annexation ). Externally, it has served its purpose by forcing NATO to de facto forswear extending membership to Ukraine in the foreseable future, though it may have achieved the side effect of bringing about the alliances internal consolidation and a renewal of its raison detre. While Russias outright invasion of Ukraines Russian-speaking areas cannot be ruled out (how many pundits predicted the Crimean scenario amid all the hoopla of the opening of the Sochi olympics?), it is unlikely for several reasons. First of all, Ukraines East, although predominantly Russian-speaking and with deeply-held pro-Russian sympathies, is nowhere near to matching Crimea in its enthusiasm to join Russia. The public sentiment there is split on the issue, while its oligarchs - including Ukraines richest man Rinat Akhmetov - have proclaimed their support of Ukraine in its present borders. Secondly, Vladimir Putin has already largely achieved his aforementioned goals, at least for the time-being. Crimea is effectively lost to Ukraine and the East will - at the very least - have obtained a great degree of autonomy from Kiev and can be expected to continue enjoying its close economic, political and cultural ties with Moscow. By maintaining (and, likely, increasing) his influence in the East, Putin will use it as a Domoclean sword over the government in Kiev, keeping it in a state of existential dread and careful not to antagonise Moscow unnecessarily. Indeed, one can detect the said influence in Arseniy Yatsenyuks announcement that although he intended to sign political agreements with the EU at its upcoming summit, he will abstain from signing the free trade agreement. The reason stated: it might have a negative impact on Ukraines industrial East, which has long depended on trade with Russia for its prosperity. Crimeas burdens Finally, it can be expected that Putin will - in the near future at least - limit his appetite for territorial expansion to Crimea, given the territorys specifics and its burden on Russias economy, already finding itself in a precarious state due to the adverse market reaction to the peninsulas invasion and the threat of deep sanctions by America and the EU. The peninsula lacks many vital resources, having to import most of its fresh water and electricity, and will thus be a much greater financial burden on Russia than Abkhazia and South Ossetia combined. Then there is the pesky problem of the Crimean Tatars, who had settled the peninsula long before Russians arrival: Their memory of being deported by Stalin to Uzbekistan in 1940s is still fresh. Ever since being allowed to resettle in Ukraine following Ukraines independence and to enjoy a high degree of autonomy, they have been staunch supporters of Ukraines sovereignty over Crimea. Just yesterday, the body of a missing ethnic Crimean Tatar, a known pro- Ukrainian activist, was found, bearing signs of torture. Unless Moscow establishes a rapprochement with the Crimean Tatar community and does it quickly, it may be facing unrest there for years to come. Even absent an armed conflict, though, Russias Crimean adventure has set it on a course of protracted collision with the West and alienation from much of the rest of the world. As countries diversify their energy supplies and new sources of energy become available, Russia risks losing its favorite method of persuasion - gas blackmail - and with it, its ability to coerce others into its anti-American, anti- Western camp. Its alliance will be limited to occasional bedfellows like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela and pariah states like North Korea.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 19:32:42 +0000
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