The storm prediction center has upgraded parts of Arkansas to a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow. The wind threat is 45% and the tornado threat is 10%. That means youve 4.5x more likely to see damaging winds within 50 miles of your location compared to a tornado. Thats another way of saying that winds are a main threat and they may be strong. Right now the setup for Arkansas looks like a 6am to 3pm timing from west to east through the day. The storms should be mostly a squall so the setup would be similar to what we had on a Thursday night a couple of weeks ago. The farther east the storms get the better the chance of seeing pop-up individual cells in eastern Arkansas Monday afternoon. These would have the higher tornado threat. A squall, or line of storms, has mainly a wind threat with it. At this time, I can not pin-point where exactly the line will be and at what time. I can not tell you exactly how severe it will be in your part of the state or when exactly they will hit. Please use the time breakdown to estimate, and keep in mind that the map here is a computer guess. They can be a good estimate but are not exact and should not be used to make exact plan decisions. If youre worried about the weather Monday and have something planned then if you can, move it to another day. Otherwise, just keep an eye out for updates and try to hold off until the weather is through your area. Ill post updates as I can through the day on Monday.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 06:24:29 +0000
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