There are good reasons to think that Isis’ caliphate could run out of steam long before it matches the great Islamic empires of history. Isis has hostile forces in every direction. It will face resistance from anti-Isis Syrian rebels in the west, the hostility of Kurds in the north, and, eventually, a counter-offensive from government forces to the south. Even if the government collapses – and we are a long way from that – then Iraq’s Shia majority will not accept a permanent jihadist state on their northern flank, let alone allow Isis to stroll into Baghdad. Saddam slaughtered Shias in 1991, and Isis has been slaughtering Shias for over a decade. The Shias have had quite enough, thank you. Iraq’s neighbours will also fight back. Ankara does not look kindly at the fact that Isis has kidnapped Turkish diplomats in Mosul. Iran is not just aghast at the rise of a radical Sunni force on its western border, but concerned about losing an ally in Baghdad that it views as more important than even Assad. Tehran is reportedly airlifting over a hundred tons of supplies to Baghdad daily, and deployed its special forces there weeks ago. For these reasons ISIS announced Caliphate. The impact of this announcement will be global as al-Qaida affiliates and independent jihadist groups must now definitively choose to support and join the Islamic State or to oppose it. Caliphate may lead to tribes or villages or other groups of people outside of the Iraq/Syria-theatre declaring their allegiance to Abu Bakr [al-Baghdadi]. Isis would know pretty well that this is not sustainable. Tikrit has become the key focus for fighting, and conflicting claims about its progress. The Iraqi army attempted to take back the city last week with reports that helicopters had flown in troops to drive out the insurgents. In Syria, ISIS was defeated by a strange alliance, near Aleppo by the governmental soldiers and in the north of Syria by the rebels. ISIS phenomena maybe collapse in the next few months.
Posted on: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 12:21:39 +0000
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