There has been considerable discussion on Collapse of Industrial Civilisation about the warming effect of the total greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. In 2013 I woke up to the fact that the ‘official’ methane multiplier was way too low: like many people I accepted the ‘official’ figure without thinking. And only very recently weeks have I woken up to the fact that the entire basis for most assessments is phony. I have no access to a suitably equipped laboratory and can only present this case as scientifically as possible from a theoretical perspective. 1. If we take a tube containing methane and pass a ray of the right spectral wavelength through it the methane molecules will absorb energy and reradiate it randomly, resulting in a lower reading at a sensor at the end than would occur if the tube were a vacuum tube (cf. the work of Tyndall, 1859). 2. If we repeat the procedure one year later, the methane will absorb and reradiate exactly the same amount of radiation. 3. In the atmosphere methane molecules can be oxidised, primarily by hydroxide ions OH- or OH radicals OH. , which are generated by the splitting of water molecules by ionizing agents 4. The effect in the atmosphere is to progressively convert CH4 into CO2 via a ‘decay’ curve. 5. Since CH4 in the atmosphere has a very much higher greenhouse effect than CO2 (well over 100 times as great as CO2 in the short term), evaluation of an individual molecule’s overall warming potential poses a considerable problem; a complex integration of ‘area under the graph’ is necessary, and even that cannot be readily achieved because the rate of oxidation can vary hugely, depending on the availability of OH ions and radicals, which are themselves subject to variation y many other factors. 6. For a long time the relative warming effect of CH4 was described as ‘about twenty times that of CO2’, while an ‘official’ factor of 23 was assigned. In 2013 the ‘official’ factor was raised to 34. This was on the basis of a very high initial warming factor which eventually decline to a value of 1. 7. Methane is generated by natural systems in enormous quantities whenever organic matter is decomposed in situations which lack oxygen: since solids and liquids are around one-thousand times as dense as gases, running of oxygen tends to be a commonplace occurrence wherever dead organic matter accumulates. Methane is also generated in other biological situations, and as a result of ancient deposits of organic matter in sedimentary rocks being subject to extreme heat -the gas often associated with oil and coal. 8. For most of the time the prior to the Industrial Revolution the generation of methane and its oxidation were roughly in balance. There was always a relatively small amount of methane in the atmosphere: the generally accepted figure is around 750ppb immediately prior to industrialism. That methane was contributing to maintenance of the relatively stable temperatures of the Halocene. 9. Since practically every molecule of CH4 that was in the atmosphere that was oxidised to CO2 was replaced by another, the warming effect did not change and was always the product of the instantaneous absorption and reradiation rate, as measured in a tube in a laboratory. Although individual molecules were removed as per the ‘decay’ curve, the overall amount of CH4 did not decline as suggested by accepted climate modelling factors of 23 and 34. 10. In recent times atmospheric methane levels have been somewhat above twice the pre-industrial level, in the range 1500 to 1800ppb or 1.5 to 1.8ppm. Higher levels of the order of 2.3ppm have been reported in arctic regions, so a fair approximation of current atmospheric methane is 2ppm. 11. Since release of methane constantly replaces (or exceeds) methane oxidation, we must use the instantaneous warming factor of something in excess of 100. Doing so gives us a CO2 equivalence of 200ppm. 12. Adding the CO2 equivalence of CH4 of 200ppm to the 400ppm CO2 gives us a total CO2 equivalence of 600ppm for just carbon dioxide and methane. 13. If we apply the same logical argument to other ‘minor’ greenhouse gases we discover that we are at well over 700ppm CO2 equivalence. 14. If we consider the state of affairs prior to the Industrial Revolution we had approximately 0.75ppm CH4, which gives an equivalence of 0.75 x 100 = 75ppm CO2. That gives us a total equivalence of 355ppm for CO2 plus CH4. Other components of the atmosphere would have taken the total CO2 equivalence to something around 400ppm CO2, as compared to the current value in excess of 700ppm 15. That suggests we currently have about twice the greenhouse gas warming forcing compared to a little over 200 years ago. Clearly that level of forcing is having the disastrous effects on the natural world we have been witnessing over in recent times, and we cannot be surprised that we have triggered numerous positive feedbacks. 16 Since the prime purpose of government is to facilitate the looting-and-polluting of the commons by corporations and opportunists in order that Ponzi financial and economic arrangements can be maintained in the short term, and the gate-keepers of the commercial media require business-as-usual, of no discussion of the almost certain runaway nature of climate change is publicly allowable. Kevin Moore 8th March 2014 All the comments above from Kevin Moore not me. Robin Westenra Kirk Norring climatecentral.org/news/arctic-methane-emissions-certain-to-trigger-warming-17374
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 21:41:07 +0000
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