This figure is a simple projection based on the rate of infection seen to date. The number of cases has been doubling every two weeks. If the infection rate continues at that pace, this is what the outbreak will look like by the end of January. With a 50%-60% mortality rate, than will mean well over half a million dead of the disease in just over four months. For reference, lung cancer kills 1.6 million people worldwide every year, diabetes and HIV both kill 1.5 million people per year. Malaria kills about 1 million people per year. The good news? This figure estimate is based on the idea of no additional intervention to check the spread. As we know, the affected countries are ramping up their responses. From an international perspective, there are many countries, including the United States, who are working with the World Health Organization to address the disease and provide as much aid as possible. So maybe things wont get quite as apocalyptic as that 1.4 million figure, but it will still be bad, and the large number of infected will greatly increase the likelihood of the disease spreading to others parts of the world.
Posted on: Wed, 24 Sep 2014 18:58:21 +0000
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