To say that luck plays a significant part in success can seem demoralizing at first. However, once this is acknowledged, you can put systems in place to protect against bad luck and capitalize on the good. But first, recognize that there are two kinds of uncertainty in life and each requires a different strategy. the first kind of uncertainty refers to those probabilities that are lawful and measurable. The other kind of uncertainty is completely unpredictable and game changing. These are the kind of events – positive or negative – referred to by the statistician and author Nassim Taleb as “Black Swans.” Managing uncertainty effectively means recognizing the limits of your control. You can influence those uncertainties that are known and lawful. This is where hard work pays off – in rehearsal, research and learning. The more time you invest, the more you raise your chances of success in a predictable fashion. But it’s possible this will only take you so far. Black Swans can bring you fame or failure, and they require a different treatment. By definition these events are unpredictable, but once you accept their importance, there are meaningful strategies you can adopt. 99u/articles/28195/how-to-be-lucky
Posted on: Sun, 22 Jun 2014 04:45:27 +0000
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