To whom it may concern For the Russian president, the shuttle diplomacy could be his chance to ease sanctions against Russia, something that some EU countries are beginning to advocate. The basic question of the ceasefire is viewed as simply as a Russian’s gesture of good will to cover the true Kremlin’s intentions in eastern shore of Ukraine. Yet the ceasefire is already creating a mess for some EU governments. Recent attacks on the Ukrainian-held Donetsk airport is an obvious demonstration of the motivated force to be remained around the entire region on hold ready for immediate response in case some protocol provisions or “ the say so” warranty are called off. Widespread sporadic pin point clashes in some areas around Donetsk are an attempt to hold majority of capable force in position to lure on warning avenues of approach. Russian military hawks point out that the Donbas is turned into a frozen conflict and retention of ready to go forces is wasting resources and time without moving. Russia’s priority is to cease the EU’s sanctions but also to ensure that Russia consolidates for more prominent axis of advance. This is where politics and military objectives meet. Sadly current OSCE’s monitoring mission leave no alternatives for other peace brokers to step in if the situation changes dramatically. In fact as it means the OSCE lacks basic resources not in Ukraine only. They seem to have been lacking financial support from the rest of the OSCE’s 28 EU member states including Russia and its backers. According to the OSCE the mission was $55.2 million short as required. Nor do unmanned aerial vehicles or drones that could monitor infiltration along the huge pierced border. Even if the drones deploy, it has neither the experts to collect and then analyze the information in timely manner. Cooperation between the Luhan&Don regions and the Ukrainian central government is not a case while the full administrative autonomy of the entire area of Luhansk and Donetsk will be speculated over as a precedent to move Ukraine close to understanding for federalization. Should the results of parliamentary elections reveal that the political representation of western Ukraine in Rada has left behind this could lead people to unite more around self governance ideas and to push them for referendum as well. The threat could lie in mere wording by which politics may fill in the context to manipulate poor ideas. Given this progress, some EU governments are very tempted to lift the sanctions no matter whether Russia retains claims over annexation of Crimea. Given that, Russia seems to be remaining under sanctions for years if not decades to come, Ukraine must be prepared to erect a firewall.
Posted on: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 10:03:49 +0000
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