Todays Outlook 11.20.2013 The Asian markets are declining for a second consecutive session, following a weak lead from Wall Street and on growth concerns as Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its global growth forecast. The markets in China and Hong Kong are rising modestly after China signaled bolder steps to expand the yuan trading band. Asia-Pac is quiet and mixed, ranging from -0.91% (Australia) to +0.21% (Hong Kong). The Shanghai (2193, +0.03%) and Nikkei (15102, -29, -0.19%) are flattish. The Shanghai continues to have Resistance at 2200-25 while the Nikkei could be gearing up for a rise towards 15600. European stocks are seen opening lower on Wednesday despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes dovish remarks that short-term interest rates will probably stay low well after the jobless rate falls below the Feds 6.5 percent threshold. Investors keenly await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserves October monetary policy meeting as well as a slew of key U.S. reports on retail sales, consumer prices and existing home sales due out later in the day after Bernanke said the timing of stimulus tapering depends largely on incoming data, especially readings on inflation and job growth. The Dax (9193, -0.35%) saw profit-taking yesterday, but may find Support near 9100 on a dip. The Nifty (6203.45) was quiet yesterday after the good rise seen on Monday and may rise further towards 6300 over the rest of the week. U.S. markets posted losses, small ones, as there is talk markets are a bit overbought. The S&P 500 is now on a two day losing streak even though we got some good corporate results. The Dow (15967.03, -8.99, -0.06%) has closed marginally lower, not managing to stay above 16000 for the second day. There are chances of profit-taking while the Resistance at 16100 still holds. CURRENCIES The Yen continues to weaken, which is great news for Japan’s equities. The USD/JPY (100.033) hit a high at 100.20. We break above that then we can target 101.00. Above 101 lies 105.00. The GBP/USD (1.6108) has been moving up from 1.588 nicely. We will be targeting 1.63 in the coming sessions. The AUD/USD (0.9397) is stuck in a range trade pattern from 0.935 to 0.9450. The EUR/USD (1.3548) has risen 2.79 percent since the November 7 low near 1.3301. We are now testing 1.35 and a break higher is bullish for 1.3600. If it holds we could dip and test 1.3450. COMMODITIES WTI Crude (93.65) has been moving up steadily. A rise past 95.50 confirms a bottom in place and we turn bullish. Gold (1273.70) is still below 1275 and we remain near term bearish to target 1250. Copper (3.1675) hit a low at 3.125 then recovered. If support at 3.10 continues to hold we could see some gains. Silver (20.384) continues to fall, targeting support near 18.5 from where it could bounce back towards 21. The rise in the Gold-Silver ratio (62.44) suggests further near-term weakness for Silver. WHAT TO WATCH TODAY: Today we will hear the FOMC minutes from October’s meeting and will get a plethora of data. Retail sales, CPI, business inventories, and existing home sales will keep markets busy today. Mark Owen Senior Account Manager UK Phone: +44-8000-885147 | Website: tradehits Email: Mark@tradehits | Facebook :/facebook/mark.owen.3781995 Disclaimer: The information in the above analysis is collected from different sources and should serve for informative purposes only. The author shall not be held responsible for the validity of the presented information. No part of this analysis recommends the purchase or sale of a currency pair or any other financial instrument.
Posted on: Wed, 20 Nov 2013 08:39:50 +0000
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